186 CONDORCET: A BIOGRAPHY. 



of various parameters are used. The aim of the Academy was clearly 

 expressed — to have the processes employed, at once direct aud simple. 

 The award of the prize was to have been made in 1774, but it was de- 

 ferred. In 1778 Condorcet shared it with M. Tempelhoff. "Your beau- 

 tiful essay," wrote Lagrange to our confrere (June 8, 1778), "would have 

 received the entire prize if the application of your theory had been made 

 to any particular comet. This condition was in the programme." Tlie 

 condition was certainly there, but Condorcet had, as he himself acknowl- 

 edges, an extreme repugnance "for calculations which tax without pleas- 

 ing the attention." Of course it will be understood that numerical 

 calculations are meant. 



Among the great mathematical discoveries the world owes to France 

 is a branch of calculus still very little appreciated, notwithstanding the 

 services it has already rendered and those it still promises. ' This is the 

 calculus of probabilities. 



I do not hesiiate to claim this discovery of the calculus of probabili- 

 ties for our country, notwithstanding the efforts which have been made 

 to dei)rive her of the credit. To dignify as inventors of this calculus the 

 authors of some numerical remarks, without precision upon the various 

 ways of computing a certain sum of points, in the simultaneous throw 

 of three dice, would be a baseless pretension, which even national 

 prejudice could hardly excuse. 



Among the eminent services this calculus has rendered to mankind 

 we should mention in the first line the aliolition of the lottery and sev- 

 eral other games of chance, which were as traps set for cupidity, cre- 

 dulity, aud ignorance. Thanks to the evident and simile principles 

 upon which the new analysis is ibundcd, it is no longer possible to dis- 

 guise the frauds in which these fiiuiucial combinations were formerly 

 entrenched: discounts, annuities, tontines, insurances of all kinds, have 

 lost their character of mystery and obscurity. 



On this ground the application of probabilities has been admitted 

 without much resistance. But when Condorcet, after some essays of 

 Nicolas Bernoulli, made incursion, by means of the new calculus, into 

 the domain of jurisprudence and of moral aud political science, an oppo- 

 sition almost general warned him that he could not take possession of 

 this field without a severe contest. To tell the truth, the contest still 

 continues. In order to end it, the geometers, on the one hand, must 

 consent to put the principles of probabilities in clear, precise terms, as 

 free as possible from technical expressions ; while, on the other hand 

 (and this is much more difiQcult), the public must be led to recognize, 

 that appreciation of certain very com[)lcx matters cannot be attained 

 at a glance ; that it is impossible to speak pertinently of figures without 

 mastering first at least the principles of enumeration ; finally that there 

 exist truths, legitimate connections, outside of those, the rudiments of 

 which may have been acquired in youth, or by the reading of classical 

 works. To comprehend that civil and criminal tribunals should be con- 



