﻿rockhill] the population of china 319 



the province contains no extremely populous cities; Ch'eng-tu, the 

 capital, has about 350,000, and Ch'ung-k'ing about 130,000. 



The Lyons Commercial Mission, speaking of the year 1895-96, 

 states its belief that the estimates of the Maritime Customs at Ch'ung- 

 k'ing for 1891 of 30,000,000 to 35,000,000 for the province of Ssri- 

 ch'uan is too low, but accepts that of from 40,000,000 to 45,ooo,ooo. 1 

 G. J. L. Litton, writing in 1898, estimated the population of Ssu- 

 ch'uan at more than double that given in the enumeration of 1812, 

 and put it at 43,ooo,ooo. 2 F. S. A. Bourne, also writing in 1898, says 

 that the population of Ssu-ch'uan is probably between 45,000,000 and 

 55,000,000. In a report in 1904 Hosie gives it as 45,ooo,ooo. 3 



Kiang-hsi, for which the official returns give a population of more 

 than 24,000,000, is believed by W. J. Clennell, writing in 1903, to 

 have less than 1 2,000,000. 4 The same writer estimates the popula- 

 tion of Fu-kien in 1903, at " certainly under 10 millions," whereas the 

 Chinese figure for 1885 is 23,502,794. As regards Yiin-nan, the 

 Lyons Mission 5 puts the population in 1896 at from 7,000,000 to 

 8,000,000. F. S. A. Bourne, writing of Yiin-nan in 1896, says that 

 " according to the best native authority the population is estimated at 

 one-fifth of what it was before the (Mohammedan) rebellion " ; r> 

 while Litton, in 1903, thought it was " not over 10 millions." 7 The 

 Chinese estimate of the population of this province in 1879 ( tne same 

 figure is given for 1885) was 11,721,576, but only two years before 

 that, in 1877, General Mesny 8 placed it at 5,600,000. 



Kuei-chou, in or about 1896, was thought to have about 7,000,000 

 inhabitants, 9 in this agreeing with the Chinese estimate. 



Without going any farther we see that for the five provinces above 

 mentioned, foreign investigators substantially agree that the Chinese 

 estimates are too large by some 56,000,000. All the Chinese figures 

 are one-half to one-third too high. I have not the least doubt that 

 the same reduction must apply to the estimates for most of the other 

 provinces, the error in excess increasing presumably with the density 

 of the population. The conviction is therefore forced on me that the 

 present population of China proper does not exceed 275,000,000— 

 and is probably considerably under this figure. 



1 Mission Lyonnaise d'explor.-commer. en Chine, 1895-97, part 11, p. 232. 

 "Brit. Cons. Reports, No. 457, Misc. series. 



3 Brit. Cons. Reports, No. 458, Misc. series, p. 49. Blue Book; China, No. 

 5 {1904), P. 4- 



4 Brit. Pari. Blue Book; China, No. 1, 1903. 



5 Op. cit., part 11, p. 129. 



6 Rep. Blackburn Chamber Commerce, p. 91. 



7 Brit. Pari. Blue Book; China, No. 3, 1903. 



8 Journ. Ch. Br. Roy. Asiat. Soc, xxv, p. 483.- 

 * Mission Lyons., part 11, p. 207. 



