1883.] Mr. B. H. Scott on Weatlier Knowledge in 1883. 323 



WEEKLY EVENING MEETING, 



Friday, May 4, 1883. 



Warken De La Eue, Esq. M.A. D.C.L. F.E.S. Manager, 



in the Chair. 



RoBEET Henry Scott, Esq. M.A. F.R.S. Secretary 

 to the Meteorological Council. 



Weather Knowledge in 1883. 



Eather more than ten years since I had the honour of delivering a 

 Friday Evening Lecture in this Theatre, and my subject on that 

 occasion was somewhat similar to that which I have chosen for this 

 evening. It w^as then " Eecent Progress in Weather Knowledge," 

 and to-night I must endeavour to lay before you the results of ten 

 years' further experience of a work of which the complexity becomes 

 daily more patent. 



Dealing first with the forecasting of the character of seasons. 

 In 1873 the theory of a connection between the Frequency of Sun- 

 spots and the Weather had been recently promulgated, and appeared 

 to promise most valuable results. It is universally admitted that 

 the presence of spots on the solar surface indicates increased activity 

 in his gaseous envelope, which ought to and must affect our atmo- 

 sphere. 



A connection between the Frequency of Sun-spots and the preva- 

 lence of Hurricanes in the Indian Ocean was the first phenomenon 

 which w^as cited as a proof that such influence is traceable, and the 

 statistics brought forward appeared to confirm the- idea. The period- 

 icity of Eainfall was the next subject studied, and as an outcome of the 

 changes in rainfall distribution the recurrence of Famines has furnished 

 the text for numerous reports and pamphlets. Another subject dealt 

 with has been Temperature, but as to this, one set of investigators 

 holds that years of sun-spot frequency correspond to years of excessive 

 heat, while another set maintains that they correspond to years of 

 excessive cold ! 



This discordance has been somewhat allayed by the suggestion 

 that the causes which produce heat in one region produce cold in 

 another. On the whole, however, it may be said that the precise mode 

 in which the sun exercises his action on our atmosphere has not as 

 yet been explained, and as far as the climate of Western Europe is 

 concerned, the warmest adherents of sun-spot influence must admit 

 that observations of the condition of the sun's surface cannot as yet 

 be depended on as a sound basis for prophecy of coming weather. 



