INQUIRY INTO TJIK I'OPULATION OF CHINA. (i75 



while Litton, in I'.X):'., thoiiiiht it was "not over 10,000,000/'" The 

 Chinese estimate of the |)()i)ulation of this province in 1K7!) (the same 

 figure is given for ISSa) was ll,721,r)T(), hut only two years before 

 that, in 1877, (General Mesney '' placed it at r),(;00,()()0. 



Kuei-chou in or about 18i)('» was thought to have about 7,0(X),000 

 inhabitants,'' in this agreeing with the Chinese estimate. 



Without going any further we see that foi- the five provinces a})()ve 

 mentioned foreign investigators substantially agree that the Chinese 

 estimates are too large by some 50,000,000. All the Chinese figures 

 are one-half to one-third too high. I have not the least doubt that 

 the same reduction must apply to the estinuites for most of the other 

 proA'inces, the error in excess increasing presumably with the density 

 of the pojjulation. The conviction is therefore forced on me that the 

 ])resent i)oj)ulation of China proper does not exceed 275,000,000, and 

 is probably considerably under this figure. 



The population of China is most unevenly distributed. In cer- 

 tain sections, for example, around Swatow, and in portions of Ilo-nan, 

 Shan-tung, and Chih-li, it is extraordinarily dense, while in others, 

 as Kan-su, Yiin-nan, Kuei-chou, and Kuang-hsi, it is surprisingly 

 sparse. Guesses of the population based on partial returns from some 

 densely populated center would give a most erroneous idea of the 

 population not only of the province as a Avhole, but of even a smaller 

 division of the country. I have traversed several times all the north- 

 ern provinces of China — Chih-li, Shan-hsi, Shen-hsi, and Kan-su — 

 and can vouch for the fact that in none of them does the poi)ulation 

 appear to exceed in numbers what the soil can easily support. The 

 absence of easy lines of communication over which surplus produce 

 can be readily exported, and the fact that the Chinese do not raise 

 cattle or any domestic animals in considerable numbers, tend to re- 

 strict the areas cultivated by the farmer. It seems certain that China 

 could support a much larger population than it now has — a condition 

 which could not exist if the population had reached the enormous 

 figure which imaginative writers give us. I am confirmed in this 

 opinion by such a careful observer as F. S. A. Bourne, who, referring 

 to the journey of the Blackburn Chamber of Commerce mission,'' 

 which traversed the whole Yang-tzii Valley a nd southwestern China, 

 says: " I'rom what we have seen on this journey I should say that 

 China could support twice her present population, and that each man 



a Brit. Pari. Blue Book ; Cliina, No. ,3, 1903. 



6 Journ. Ch. Br. Roy. Asiat. Soc, XXV, p. 483. 



(■Mission Lyons., part n, p. 207. 



*Rep. of mission to China of Blackburn ("hanilier of Commerce, 1896-97. p. 111. 



