IMPROVEMENT OF THE HUMAN BREED. 533 



might be trusted to make the ultimate .select ion. They would be 

 guided by persona] interviews. They would take into consideration 

 all favorable points in the family histories of the candidates, giving 

 appropriate hereditary weight to each. Probably they would agree 

 to pass over unfavorable points, unless they were notorious and fla- 

 grant, owing to the great difficulty of ascertaining the real truth about 

 them. Ample experience in making selections has been acquired even 

 by scientific societies, most of which work well, including perhaps the 

 award of their medals, which the fortunate recipients at least are 

 tempted to consider judicious. The opportunities for selecting women 

 in this way are unfortunately fewer, owing to the smaller number of 

 female students, between whom comparisons might be made on equal 

 terms. In the selection of women, when nothing is known of their 

 athletic proficiency, it would be especially necessary to pass a high 

 and careful medical examination; and as their personal qualities do 

 not usually admit of being tested so thoroughly as those of men, it 

 would be necessary to lay all the more stress on hereditary family 

 qualities, including those of fertility and prepotency. 



CORRELATION BETWEEN PROMISE IN YOUTH AND SUBSEQUENT 



PERFORMANCE. 



No serious difficulty seems to stand in the way of classifying and 

 giving satisfactory diplomas to youths of either sex, supposing there 

 were a strong demand for it. But some real difficulty does lie in the 

 question, Would such a classification" be a trustworthy forecast of 

 qualities in later life ( The scheme of descent of qualities ma} T hold good 

 between the parents and the offspring at similar ages, but that is not 

 the information we really want. It is the descent of qualities from 

 men to men, not from youths to youths. The accidents that make or 

 mar a career do not enter into the scope of this difficulty. It resides 

 entirely in the fact that the development does not cease at the time of 

 youth, especially in the higher natures, but that faculties and capa- 

 bilities which were then latent subsequently unfold and become promi- 

 nent. Putting aside the effects of serious illness. 1 do not suppose there 

 is any risk of retrogression in capacity before old age comes on. The 

 mental powers that a youth possesses continue with him as a man, but 

 other faculties and new dispositions may arise and alter the balance of 

 his character. He may cease to be efficient in the way < if which he gave 

 promise, and he may perhaps become efficient in unexpected directions. 

 The correlation between youthful promise and performance in 

 mature life has never been properly investigated. Its measurement 

 presents no greater difficulty, so far as I can foresee, than in other 

 problems which have been successfully attacked. It is one of those 

 alluded to in the beginning of this lecture as hearing on race improve- 

 ment, and being on its own merits suitable for anthropological inquiry. 



