is an amovint equivalent to 6,$ percent of 

 the value of 1957 haddock landings in 

 Boston, Zi*/ The point Is that the striking 

 increase in effort since 192? has increas- 

 ed catch values even less than the 36 per- 

 cent poundage increase would indicate 

 because scrod comprised a large part of 

 the catch, 



the actual decrease in the abundance 

 of larger sizes of haddock may in part be 

 attributed to the situation obtaining in 

 recent years: small scrod haddock were 

 caught before they reached fuller growth. 

 Since 1931 abvmdance of total haddock has 

 tended to follow abundance of scrod with 

 little time lag. Moreover, there has not 

 been the reserve stock of large haddock 

 to fall back on as in the 1920' s. 



Most biologists believe that the 

 abundance of haddock depends principally 

 upon recruitanent, which varies greatly 

 with changes in environmental conditions. 

 The effects of changes in the enviroment 

 upon abundance in any one year are probably 

 much more important than is fishing effort. 

 It is impossible at present, however, to 

 predict the co\irse of such environmental 

 changes , 



In a long-term analysis of the re- 

 sources, it is necessary that averages 

 based on experience be used, and in the 

 case of numbers of fish caught there is no 

 substantial sustained deviation from the 

 38 million average obtaining since 1931, 

 (cf. table Ill-li), With a series of favor- 

 able brood years, biologists feel that the 

 stock might yield 20 to 80 percent more 

 poundage with the same effort per vessel. 

 Since 1935, however, the poundage caught 

 by five year periods has varied by only 

 lj6 percent. In the 19l*8-57 decade, maxi- 

 mum deviation in any one year from average 

 landings for the period was only 11 per- 

 cent. Hence, in looking to the future, it 

 is possible vith successively favorable 

 brood years, that landings at present 



effort co\iLd increase substantially above 

 the 91 million pounds averaged since 1931* 



From 19lt8 to 1958 there was a pattern 

 of alternating good and bad brood years 

 rather than a sustained trend in either 

 direction. The stocks resulting from the 

 good years were large enough to sustain 

 landings over the poorer years. It had 

 long been feared, however, that two or 

 three ccwisecutively poor brood years 

 (biological recruitment) would seriously 

 reduce the catch, Ihis dire result 

 occurred in the latter half of 1958 and 

 was expected to continue into early I960, 

 Such failures in scrod abundance are due 

 to short-nm and still unpredictable 

 environmental factors. 



The dependence on a scrod fishery is 

 dangerous for the fishing industry because 

 of its marginal operating position since 

 World War II, Should successive brood 

 failures occur again the effect will be 

 to widen the existing gap between effort 

 and catch per day and to increase per 

 pound costs further. Whether this event 

 VTill act to drive additional marginal 

 operators out of business will depend on 

 whether prices can increase proportional 

 to costs. 



The 1958 haddock landings were down 

 sharply, yet prices advanced, alleviating 

 much of the higher costs of fishing effort, 

 'Vhether prices would have advanced as 

 much, were there not an international 

 scarcity of North Atlantic groundfish, 

 is a matter for conjecture. Table III-7, 

 a review of haddock prices paid ex-vessel 

 in Boston since World War II, gives little 

 basis for optimism concerning the possi- 

 bilities of higher prices covering the 

 increased costs of fishing in years when 

 the catch is reduced because of successive 

 failures in scrod abundance. 



Given brood recruitment similar to 

 that experienced in the years prior to 



7ii/ Preliminary figures for 1958 indicate that the high prices resulting from a 

 condition of fish scarcity reduced the differential to 00,83 per hundred weight. 

 In this case, the increased revenue from landings of 88.5 percent large haddock instead 

 of 50,5 percent would have been {179,000 or 1,9 percent of the value of haddock landings. 

 It would not be prudent, however, to call 1958 a "normal" year. 



U2 



