﻿8 EQUIPMENT AND WORK OF AN AERO-PHYSICAL OBSERVATORY. 



ing upon the seashore and picking up here and there a pebble while the 

 broad ocean of truth lay all unexplored before him may be not unfairly 

 compared with the forecaster of to-day. One of the proper directions of 

 future research in connection with our knowledge of atmospheric air, 

 then, is the prevision of the weather. To foregauge the changes in the 

 atmosphere is not the least promising direction for future research in 

 connection with the imperfections of our knowledge of atmospheric air. 

 We speak not of " controlling " the weather. The making of rain, of 

 warm and cold waves, the maintenance of equable temperatures are, de- 

 spite the present apparent extravagance of such aspirations, serious and 

 legitimate fields for the application of science; but the nearer problem ^ 

 that of accurately forecasting weather changes, has already been carried 

 to a certain degree of success, and we may well therefore confine our 

 study to methods available for the improvement of weather prediction. 



This, then, is the problem before us, viz., the successful scientific fore- 

 casting of atmospheric conditions. In no other direction would the work 

 of the aero-physical laboratory, to which reference has been made, be 

 so pronounced ; and carried from the present short period to periods of 

 weeks or months, what branch of applied science will be found to exert 

 so great an influence upon the welfare of man? 



We shall present first a careful analysis of methods in use — i. e., a 

 study in detail of the synoptic weather map, discussing the sources of its 

 unquestioned strength and its elements of weakness, and then consider 

 methods as yet untried, but which have scientific indorsement and seem 

 to be applicable to the question before us. 



The principle underljdng the synoptic weather map of every weather 

 ser\T.ce is simultaneity of observation. A forecaster has before him a 

 bird's-eye view, as it were, of the conditions existing at a given moment. 

 After an experience of nearly twenty-five years, when the question is 

 asked, " Has the synoptic map realized the expectations of meteorolo- 

 gists and justified the expense of its existence? '' the answer is, " Yes."' 

 But if the further question is asked, '" Is the forecaster of to-day as far in 

 advance of the forecaster of 1870 as might reasonably be inferred from 

 the lapse of time? " the response is halting and uncertain. The experi- 

 ence of the past ten years would seem to indicate that we are close to 

 exhausting the capabilities of the weather map in its present form. The- 

 introduction of modern inventions may help some, for we recall that it- 

 was the telegraph which made the map possible, and the telautograph, 

 for example, may enable us to get continuous records in place of the 

 fragmentary ones now in use ; but not until we are able to reach out 

 from the earth surface and study in sita air stratification and record 

 simultaneous changes at all levels will the great advance in forecasting- 



