1898.] on Sir Stamford Baffles and the Malay States. 767 



a turning-point in our relations witli tlie Far East. A new chax^ter 

 in the history of those relations has now opened. The beginning 

 of the century saw the establishment of that great trade route 

 which has since conferred upon us four-fifths of the commerce of 

 China. With the excejjtion of the acquisition of Hong Kong with 

 Kowlon in 1812, and of the rising colony of North Borneo, Great 

 Britain has not added to her possessions in the China Seas. Port 

 Hamilton, lying a short distance south of Korea, was occupied only 

 to be abandoned. Throughout these years our policy has been to 

 leave China territorially intact, and to open up her resources by 

 the agency of Treaty Ports. That policy is now practically at an 

 end. Since Raffles founded Singapore, Kussia has become firmly 

 established in the Far East, and her policy, long evident, of 

 occuj^ying Manchuria, and such ports in the Gulf of Pe-chi-li has 

 now been realised. Germany is established on the China sea-board, 

 with claims and concessions which extend into the Hinterland. 

 Meanwhile France has moved up from the South, and is about, it is 

 said, to occupy a port opposite to Hainan. The partition of China may 

 be said to have commenced. While we might have j)i"eferred that the 

 opening out of this vast country should have been gradually carried 

 out through its own ports, other powers, more ambitious, perhaps, and 

 less patient, had other views, and have decided to attempt by a direct 

 process what we were content to leave to indirect methods. Sooner 

 or later this was absolutely inevitable, unless China showed promise 

 of an internal awakening of which there was no real hope. I do not 

 see in the recent proceedings of Russia, Germany and France any 

 cause for alarm or any ground for recrimination. We are not and 

 we never were prepared to occupy Manchuria ourselves. We have 

 no right to complain if Russia here and Germany in Shantung under- 

 take to develop the resources of these territories. To Russia a warm 

 water port in the East is a real need. Geographical conditions all 

 pointed to the Liao-Tuug peninsula as furnishing such a i^ort. In 

 occupying Port Arthur and Talienwan, Russia is simply fulfilling 

 her evident dtstiny and acting in obedience to natural forces. Her 

 action creates no legitimate grievance. We have no right to claim 

 to exclude another power from territory which we do not intend to 

 occupy. I believe that in spite of restrictions the opening up of 

 Manchuria will benefit British trade just as the development of 

 European Russia has added to our commerce. Our only wise 

 course is to recognise facts long foreseen, and since the partition 

 of China has commenced to make certain of our share. I do not 

 gather that any step in this direction has been taken. We are 

 apparently to occupy Wei-hai-wei, which lies 600 miles beyond our 

 sphere, and we have done nothing to secure our position at the 

 mouth of the Yangtse, The ancient fable of the dog and the bone 

 stands true now as always. By reaching after the image of a 

 power which is not to be ours, we risk losing the real substance. 

 I consider, therefore, that we should welcome a Russian occupation 



