ORAL ARGUMENT OF HON. EDWARD J. PHELPS. 343 



200,000 females ont of a herd of 800,000 breeding females were killed 

 in one year, tlie loss would be more than made up by the progeny of the 

 remaining 000,000 at the end of ten years. 



The error of this suggestion consists in this, that the diagrams of the 

 United States Commissioners upon which the table submitted by Mr. 

 Phelps was prepared assume the herd to be in its normal condition of 

 stability, where the deaths are equal to the births; that is to say, a 

 condition in wl)ich the herd will not increase in numbers; whereas the 

 calculation in the paper referred to of the British counsel makes the 

 herd increase, thus contradicting the assumption. 



It may, indeed, be true that a hypothetical herd of females assumed 

 by the American Commissioners, and the ratio of diminution assumed 

 by their tables, may be too small or too large, one or both, for there is 

 no evidence upon which the correctness of such assumptions can be 

 determined. This is expressely stated by the Commissioners, and their 

 diagrams are framed only for the purpose of illustrating, on the one 

 hand, the effect upon the numbers of the herd produced by natural 

 causes which are not under the control of man, and, on the other hand, 

 the effect produced by those same causes in conjunction with another 

 cause, which is under the control of man, namely, the killing by the 

 hand of man. 



It is stated in this paper that the 600,000 breeding females left in the 

 herd after the killing of 200,000 would become in the course of ten years 

 1,312,200. This may be true, but, at the same time, the 200,000 killed 

 would, on the same hypothesis, become at the end of ten years 437,800, 

 that is to say, would augment the herd by 237,800. Thus it is seen that 

 this killing of females would vastly diminish the increase of the herd. 

 If we assume, as the United States Commissioners assumed in framing 

 their diagrams, and as we have every reason to believe the fact was 

 when the hand of man was first interposed, that the herd had reached its 

 normal stationary condition, this diminution in the increase occasioned 

 by the killing of females immediately becomes a diminution below the 

 normal numbers of the herd. 



If it were possible to ascertain what the exact numbers of the herd 

 were in its normal condition, and also what the ratio of decrease from 

 natural causes was, the diminution created by the slaughter of females 

 might be accurately represented in numbers; but, in the absence of 

 knowledge upon this point, we are compelled to resort to conjectural 

 assumptions, which, while they fail to afford us the means of stating the 

 diminution in accordance with the fact, nevertheless enable us to illus- 

 trate such diminution. 



2. It is further said, on page 1 of this paper: "Thus Mr. Phelps' 

 Table A shows that the seal does not differ from other polygamous 

 animals, such as deer, of which a reasonable proportion of females are 

 annnally killed, in carefully managed i^reserves without injury". 



This may be true in respect to a "carefully managed i)reserve", but 

 the implication is, and surely the fact must be, that such a course can- 

 not be taken anywhere else except in a "carefully managed preserve". 

 A preserve can only sujiport and accommodate a certain number, and if 

 the natural increase tends to exceed that number, it is proper, and may 

 indeed be necessary, to reduce the herd by the killing of females. If 

 the learned counsel for Great Britain had indicated by what rules, 

 regulations, limitations and restrictions this herd of seals, when on the 

 seas, could be treated as a "carefully managed preserve", their observa- 

 tions might be more instructive. 



