A SUGGESTED DEPARTURE IN NATIONAL FOREST 

 STUM PAGE APPRAISALS 



By Howard R. Flint 

 Forest Supervisor, Kaiiiksu Xational Forest 



More or less real difficulty and dissatisfaction on both sides has fol- 

 lowed in the wake of many conscientiously executed appraisals of 

 National Forest timber. While a portion of this difficulty may have 

 been due to inexperience or the lack of sufficient reliable data, it seems 

 entirely probable that the greater part of it is an inevitable outcome of 

 the method and cannot be eliminated by experience on the part of the 

 appraiser, more complete data, or a more liealthy condition of the lum- 

 ber industry than at present exists. 



I'robably. under the present standardized methods, most appraisals 

 are usually not far wide of the mark at the time they are made and are 

 therefore quite readily accepted by purchasers. Where dissatisfaction 

 arises later, it is often due to unforeseen fluctuations in price of labor 

 or product which tend to invalidate the original appraisal. 



It is with a view to calling attention to a factor which seems to have 

 been largely overlooked, and with the hope of starting a discussion 

 which may lead to the development of a more sound and equitable 

 method of making appraisals in connection with large sales, that these 

 suggestions are offered. 



There can be no question but that the fundamental principle on which 

 the value of National Forest stumpage is fixed is correct, as set forth 

 in the instructions for making stumpage appraisals. This principle 

 states that "stumpage will be regarded as worth the selling value of its 

 ])roduct. less all costs of producing it. and a fair margin for profit to 

 the operator." 



There are three prime factors which enter into any appraisal based 

 on the above-stated principle : 



T. The actual selling value of the product. 



2. An accurately determined cost of production. 



3. .\ fair margin of profit. 



Probably the greatest weakness in the existing method of making 

 appraisals lies in the determination of the first factor. It is entirely 

 true that a reasonably accurate figure can be determined for this value 

 tor any given time, but unless the appraiser be gifted with second sight 



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