XATKIXAI. I'OkKST STrMI'Ai;K APPRAISALS 825 



lluctuation in the general market in which the output is sold ; they may 

 extend over a brief, or a very considerable, period of time ; they may 

 operate in either direction, and it may be quite impossible for any aj)- 

 praiser to foresee their direction or amount. A change in wages or 

 working conditions in a widely separated region, sectional I. W. W. 

 activities, and the sudden absorption of much of the available labor by 

 some other rising local industry are causes which actually have had a 

 material effect on cost of production in many cases. Doubtless it is 

 true that in the course of time these temporary regional changes be- 

 come adjusted to general market conditions, but this fact is scant com- 

 fort to the operator who must face an unwarranted stumpage price 

 until such adjustment takes place. 



A possibility of remedying this weakness in stumpage appraisals is 

 at once apparent in the plan previously suggested for correcting the 

 evil effects of unusual market conditions. To render this possibility 

 applicable, logging-cost figures for use in appraisals should in all cases 

 l)e expressed in terms of man-hours or horse-hours required for the 

 ])erformance by existing standard methods of each phase of the work 

 under the particular given set of conditions. This plan of recording 

 the cost of operations in hours might very well be applied, even in the 

 current stumpage appraisal practice, since the unit of time is a value 

 that does not fluctuate as does the purchasing power of money ex- 

 pended for wages, and the hour may very well be regarded as the 

 absolute unit in which quantities of labor are marketed. 



After expressing the cost of operating under any given set of con- 

 ditions in hours, it may, for practical purposes, be translated into the 

 English of the purchaser by expressing it in dollars and cents, reckoned 

 at the average current rates of wages actually in effect in the region at 

 the time. 



All of the rules and safeguards applied to determining the cost of 

 production under existing methods can be applied with equal facility 

 to the proposed method, and the figure arrived at may then be accepted 

 as the standard which an average operator may reasonably hope to 

 attain. Whether or not the estimated number of hours or dollars is 

 sufficient to do the work, the would-be purchaser must decide for him- 

 self, and on that decision, and his further decision as to whether or not 

 the arbitrary allowance for profit is sufficient, he must submit or with- 

 hold his bid. 



At the completion of the contract a final adjustment of stumpage 

 prices may be made, based not upon estimates, but directly on the his- 

 tory of the industry during the life of the sale in question, both selling 



