210 JOURNAL OF FORE.STRY 



Third : The report of Mr. Kirby has been so widely quoted in the 

 lumber journals and elsewhere, and out here on the Coast by some 

 of the most prominent lumbermen, that I presumed, it was authentic. 

 Inaccuracies in it had not previously been called to my attention. I 

 shall be very glad to see Mr. Rhodes' computation. I just had a letter 

 from him, by the way, commending my article, in which he did not 

 mention this point. However, it appears there is plenty of evidence 

 that by ten years from now the South will need whatever timber 

 production it can muster for its own industrial needs and will not be 

 any great help to the rest of the country. 



Fourth: I did not say that stumpage in New England is $50. In 

 my statement New England and the North Atlantic States were 

 grouped together, and specifically, I found a price of $50 per thousand 

 for stumpage of basswood and cucumber in my native county, Chau- 

 tauqua, in Western New York. I have also several times been told on 

 good authority that stumpage prices of $50 and more had been secured 

 on old growth white pine in Michigan. I presume there is little, if 

 any, timber stand in New England of a quality which would bring 

 such prices. I would say further, that if the lumber prices obtained 

 on hardwood as published in the Lumber World Review for January 

 10 are authentic, certainly high-grade logs, or even high-grade trees of 

 certain of these species, should be worth $50 stumpage. Otherwise, 

 the logger and manufacturer of the stumpage would stand convicted 

 as the most conscienceless profiteer in the world's history. 



Fifth : I hold that there is no set of prices or anything el§e that will 

 prevent a certain percentage of bankruptcies and failures in any in- 

 dustry, including timber holding. Under a system of individual initia- 

 tive there is always a percentage of plungers in every industry, who 

 overstrain their credit, practice unwise management, etc., which will, 

 of course, in such cases bring disaster. If you eliminate this class 

 the enormous profits made by lumbermen recently if used to place 

 themselves in a conservative financial position by elimination of un- 

 necessary borrowing, etc., will place them in an absolutely impregnable 

 position for all time in the future. Of course the next financial de- 

 pression, which may be expected along in two to five years, will un- 

 doubtedly put those with over-strained credits in some difficulties. The 

 same would be true whether stumpage was $25, $100, or $1,000 per 

 thousand. 



