40 Journal of Agriculture, Victoria. [10 Jan., 1916. 



the average yield per acre early in November, and witli a reasonable 

 degree of approximation. Tims the winter rainfall at the selected 

 centres can be determined on 1st November, and the composite rainfall 

 multiplied by a given factor will give the apjiroximate yield per acre. 

 During the past tw^elve years the average yield for each inch of winter 

 rainfall has been shown to be 1.12. It has already been sho^\ai that 

 this factor must gradually increase as farming methods become more 

 efficient. 



Assuming, however, that this average ratio of the past twelve years 

 will hold for this season, it means that the average yield per acre of 

 Victoria for 1915-16 harvest will probably be 1.12 X 12.45 = 13.94 

 bushels per acre. 



The advantage of such a method of forecasting the harvest lies in 

 the fact that it can be used to gain an idea of the approximate harvest 

 long before the ordinary official statistics published by the Government 

 Statist and the Railway Department are available. Moreover, the only 

 data required is the rainfall figures for the ten centres. Early in 

 November it was necessary to gain an approximate estimate of the 

 wheat crop of Victoria, in order to allocate freights under the Common- 

 wealth Wheat Marketing scheme. 



As official statistics showed that the area to be cut for grain would 

 be 3,800,000 acres, the Agricultiiral Department estimated the new 

 crop on 7th November at 3,800,000 X 13.94 = 53,000,000 bushels. 



Early in December the Railway Department estimated the crop at 

 52^ million bushels, and the Government Statist at 50^ million bushels. 



Summary. 



The main interest of the graph lies in the fact that it shows more 

 or less completely — 



(1) The quantitative relationship existing between the average 



wdieat yield and the rainfall. 



(2) The gradual improvement in our agricultural methods, as 



illustrated by the increasing amount of wheat produced 

 for each unit of rainfall. 



(3) That it is possible to estimate with some degree of approxi- 



mation the probable crop of Victoria early in November 

 from a knowledge of the rainfall at typical wheat centres. 



When resting horses during the spring and summer work always turn 

 their heads towards the breeze. They will cool off much more quickly, 

 and will be more benefited by the short respite. While they are standing 

 hold the collars oif their shoulders for a few miiiutes, and, at the same 

 time, give each shoulder a good rubbing with the hand. This removes 

 sweaty grease and dirt, cools and helps to toughen the shoulders, and 

 is a great aid in the prevention of scalding. 



A DULL hoe never kills as many weeds as a sharp one, and is harder to 

 use. Five minutes' work with a file or emery wheel will do wonders 

 towards killing the weeds in the potato ox onion crop. 



