10 May, 1916.] The Wheat Crop for 1916. 259 



The principle of the scheme is that the proceeds from the sales of 

 wheat, less marketing and transit charges, are to be divided between the 

 participating growers in proportion to the amount of wheat forwarded. 

 Full market price is secured for all cargoes sold abroad, and a fair price, 

 approximating London parity, viz., 4s. 9d. per bushel, is charged for 

 all wh^at used for gristing for internal consumption. Such advan- 

 tageous marketing conditions, it is now generally admitted, could not 

 have been obtained without Government intervention. It may be said 

 that the resources and credit of the States were used on behalf of the 

 producers to obtain full market value for our staple crop. 



Summarized, the position for 1915 is as follows: — Victorian farmers 

 reaped a harvest of 58,500,000 bushels, an equivalent of at least two 

 normal crops. In addition, the f.o.b. price is at least equal to the best 

 f.o.b. price received for the past forty years. If the whole harvest 

 could be sold at current rates it would be worth two and a-half to three 

 ordinary crops. Such, in brief, is the record for 1915. 



II.— PROSPECT. 



But what of 1916 ? Will the farmers rest content with the achievement 

 of the past season or will they make another concerted effort for a big 

 crop this year? If we are to judge the question by the amount of 

 preparation and fallowing already done, it must be confessed that the 

 crop prospects for 1916 in Victoria are not bright. In the Wimmera, 

 the Mallee, and the Goulburn Valley the amount of fallowing appears 

 to be far short of the amount normally completed at this season of the 

 year. Scarcity' of skilled farm labour is having an inevitable effect on 

 diminution of acreage. Since harvest time many farm hands, farmers' 

 sons and farmers themselves have responded to their country's call and 

 have enlisted. This makes the task for those who remain all the 

 heavier. 



Though no effort will be spared by those who remain, the task of 

 maintaining the full area under cultivation on each farm will be indeed 

 difficult, and will call for extra sacrifices and hard work. 



Except for the greater scarcity of farm labour caused by generous 

 enlistment in this State the task of preparation is not attended witli the 

 difficulties that confronted the farmer last year. Stock are in excellent 

 condition, and there is an abundance of fodder on every farm. 



Bnt it Is to hii feared tJint the general uncertainty regarding the 

 future of the vihe.at market may cause growers to limil acreages this 

 year, just as anticipated high prices were a powerfxd stimulus to extra 

 (xertions last year. We have read of the bumper crops in the United 

 States, Canada, Australia, and Argentine in 1915, the enormous wheat 

 stacks awaiting shipment to Europe, the general scarcity of freights, the 

 picturesque advance of our Russian allies througli Armenia, rumours of 

 Turkey declaring a separate peace; and it is perhaps hard to resist the 

 inference that prices for our staple crop will slump by next harvest. If 

 such a view is widely held by farmers, it will certainly act as a greater 

 deterrent on large acreages than any other factor. 



Consequently I have endeavoured in the following pages to sum- 

 marize the statistical position of the wheat market, with a view of show- 

 ing that, though the present statistical position may appear adverse to 

 the producer, the future of the wlieat market is hopeful. 



A 2 



