]0 May, 1916.] The Wheat Crop for 1916. 261 



In 1915, the exporting countries have a surplus above their home 

 requirements of 1,330,000,000 bushels. Of this surplus Russia, 

 Roumania, and Bulgaria together account for 320,000,000 bushels, leav- 

 ing approximately 1,010,000,000 bushels for the United States. Canada, 

 Argentine, India, and Australia. Hence the exporting countries, with a 

 surplus of 1,010,000,000 bushels, are competing with one another fcr a 

 maximum effective demand of 620,000,000 bushels. Under these circum- 

 stances, it seems inevitable that there would be a heavy slump in prices 

 on the exporting markets ; yet, strange to relate, no such slump has yet 

 occurred, in spite of the fact that the Northern Hemisphere harvest of 

 1916 will in three months' time be upon us. 



As a matter of actual fact the amount of wheat produced by the 

 bumper crop of 1915 is only 305,000,000 bushels more than the record 

 crop of 1913. But more than 310,000,000 bushels are locked up 

 in the Black Sea, and for present market purposes are as good as non- 

 existent. Hence, at the worst, prices should not be lower than these 

 following on the 1913 harvest. 



Moreover, evidence is stfadili/ accumulating to shoiv thai the 

 prospects for a bir/ world harvest for 1916 are not bright. It is notr 

 knouui that there has been a considerable shrinkage in acreage sown to 

 winter loheat in the Northern Hemisphere this year : and it is more than 

 likely, judging by the unfavorable weather reports, that the average 

 yield, per acre in 1916 will not equal that of 1915. 



If these speculations are realized, the statistical position will be very 

 much brighter for the producer. 



Observed Shrinkages in Acreage. 



For example, the ofl&cial estimates for sowings of winter wheat 

 show a falling off in the United States of 5,000,000 acres, 

 Canada 1,250,000 acres, India 2,000,000 acres — a total falling 

 off in winter wheat alone, in three countries, of 8,250,000 acres. 

 Statistics relating to the spring-sown crop have not yet been published, 

 though reports have been circulated to the effect that the weather condi- 

 tions have not been favorable for seeding. Assuming a proportionate 

 shrinkage in spring-sown crops, the total area will show a falling off in 

 acreage of, approximately, 11,000,000 acres. Australia and Argentine 

 have not yet (1st April) commenced sowing. So far as Australia is 

 concerned, last year's record increase in acreage was due to the cheap 

 working up of several million acres of crop which failed to mature the 

 previous year. Similar conditions will not prevail this season, and 

 while, of course, we all hope that the acreage sown will be as large as 

 possible, it is aln^ost certain that there will be a shrinkage of at least 

 one to two million acres as compared with last year. 



Diminished winter s-owings have also been recorded in France. Italy. 

 Great Britain, and Russia. On 15th February it was estimated that 

 the area of winter wheat sown in France this year is 12,500,000 acres, 

 as against 13,606,000 acres last year. Seeding in Great Britain has 

 been delayed, and the area of winter wheat sown i.« about 94 per cent, 

 of that sown last year. 



Reports from Russia indicate that there is a decrease in acreage sown 

 to winter wheat, and that tliere will be a pi()ba1)le decrease in spring 



