262 Journal of Agriculture, Victoria. [10 May, 1916. 



sowings in 1916. No definite figures as to acreage sown are available, 

 but as the normal area sown in Russia is 75,000,000 acres, any serious 

 falling off in acreage would lead to a great diminution in yield. 



Weather conditions in Italy have been unfavorable for extended 

 sowings, and a diminished acreage is expected. 



So far as the Southern Hemisphere is concerned, it is unlikely, 

 unless wheat prices rise suddenly, and unless unusual stimulation is 

 given by Governmental agencies, that the -acreage sown in Australia will 

 approach that of last year. It is too early yet to forecast the probable 

 seeding in the Argentine, as seeding has just commenced. 



Summing up the prospects for acreage, we may say that, so far as we 

 can see at present, it is certain that there will be a considerable diminu- 

 tion in the acreage sown to wheat this year, and the final figures may 

 utimately show a deficit of 15,000,000 acres as compared with last year. 

 This, under normal conditions of yield, will give a diminished outturn of 

 240,000,000 bushels. 



Diminution in Average Yield. 



Of equal effect in reducing the surplus would be the possible decrease 

 in the average yield per acre in the wheat-growing countries of the 

 world. The American crop of 1915 averaged 16.9 bushels per acre 

 with, approximately, 60,000,000 acres sown to wheat. This was the 

 highest average yield per acre secured by America for 30 years. The 

 average yield for the 30 years prior to the war was 13.8 bushels per 

 acre. 



It is very unlikely that the weather conditions in America through- 

 out the wheat-growing period would again be favorable for another 

 bumper crop. 



A survey of past records shows wide fluctuations m the average 

 yield, varying from 12.5 bushels per acre in 1904 to 16.9 bushels per. 

 acre in 1915. 



Already there are indications that there will be a considerable 

 reduction in the average yield this year. Thus the official report for 

 April by the Washington Agricultural Bureau states that the condition 

 of winter wheat on 1st April was 78.3 per cent. — the worst on record. 

 This indicates a probable yield of 14| bushels per acre, equivalent to a 

 total production of winter wheat of 495,000,000 bushels, as against 

 659,000,000 bushels of winter wheat last year — a reduction of 

 181,000,000 bushels. 



It might be expected that the Canadian crop prospects would follow 

 more or less closely those of America, since the principal wheat belts 

 of each country experiences similar climatic conditions. In this case, 

 there would be a considerable diminution in 1916. 



On lOth March, the second official forecast of the Indian wheat crop 

 was issued. The revised estimate shows that there is a shrinkage in 

 acreage under crop of 1,807,000 acres, or nearly 6 per cent., compared 

 with the previous year. It states that the failure of the winter rains 

 in December and January seriously affected tue crop, parficularly in the 

 un-irrigated areas in the Punjab, United Provinces, and the Bombay 

 Presidency. The February rains, however, materially benefited the 

 crop. 



