10 May, 1916.] The Wheat Crop for 1916. 263 



By the time this article is published, the crop estimate will probably 

 have been issued, but present indications certainly point to a diminished 

 output from India this season. 



So far as Europe is concerned, it is difficult to secure exact infoima- 

 tion either as to acreage or the prospects of the 1916 crop. Judging by 

 reports already received, it appears that the general condition of the 

 winter-sown wheat is not as favorable as last year. 



The cereal year of 1915 was the best on record in the history of the 

 world, both in point of total acreage, total production, and total yield 

 per acre. 



A reduction of a bushel per acre in the average yield would mean a 

 diminution in the aggregate production of 240,000,000 bushels. A 

 reduction of 2 bushels per acre would more than wipe out last year's 

 surplus. 



In spite of the excessive cost of ocean freight, and the huge surpluses 

 available for shipment, prices have remained at a satisfactory level in 

 the exporting markets of the world, and are at present considerably in 

 excess of pre-war prices. This may be seen in Table VI. of the 

 appendix. Thus in Chicago the price of wheat in July, 1914, just prior 

 to the war, was 3s. 4^d. per bushel. Since the war the lowest market 

 price was 4s. 4H. in November, 1915. It is now (15th April) 4s. lid. 

 per bushel. 



If the war continues, the prices for wheat must remain at a profitable 

 level in the exporting countries, otherwise there would be a diminished 

 production, followed by an immediate and substantial rise in values. 



The belligerents, who are now mobilizing all th-sir available man 

 power for military service, will find it increasingly difficult to keep up 

 their full agricultural production, and must rely more and more on the 

 exporting countries to feed their teeming millions. This more particu- 

 larly applies to France, Italy, and Great Britain. 



On the other hand, even if peace were declared, there is historical 

 evidence to show that prices of wheat would remain at a high level for 

 a considerable period, since belligerents invariably concentrate their 

 energy and depleted capital to re-establishing their industries, repairing 

 roads, railways, bridges, and factories, and developing their manufac- 

 tures, rather than accelerating the volume of agricultural production. 



In such a case, Germany and Austria, devastated Poland and 

 Belgium, inured for nearly two years to restricted supplies of food-stuffs, 

 would abs-orb a considerable portion of Knssian surplus awaiting ship- 

 ment at Black Sea ports. 



Summing up the whole situation, we may say the prospects for a 

 continuance of satisfactory prices is favorable. 



The surplus of last year is threatened with" extinction by the antici- 

 pated deficiency of this year. 



Present indications point to a diminished outturn of wheat in 1916 

 owing to two causes — (a) shrinkage in acreage sowu, and (^') decren'-ed 

 averages per acre due to unfavorable weatlier conditions. 



The shrinkage in acreage in the Northern Heinispliere (where over 

 90 ]>er cent, of the world's wheat is grown) will probably ;unount to 

 15,000,000 acres, invtjlving a diminished outturn of 210.000.000 bushels. 



The decreased return per acre, caused by unfavoiable wealiier, will 

 certainly amount to a bushel per acre, involving a diminished output 

 of 240,000,000, ejj., a total of at least 480,000,00 bushels. 



