10 May, 1916.] The Wheat Crop for 1916. 267 



years 1914 and 1915. A perusal of the table will show at a glance the 

 remarkable increases in production in 1915 as compared with the five 

 years prior to the war. 



Australia easily led the way in percentage increase in production, 

 for in 1915 she secured a total yield of 175 million bushels as compared 

 with 77.4 million bushels for the five years prior to the war — nearly 

 two and a half times the size of a normal crop. This was the record crop 

 in her history. No other country, except Tunis, which had a relatively 

 small area under crop, approaclied this increase in yield. 



Canada had a remarkably good crop — her yield being 335 million 

 bushels as compared with a normal production of 199 million bushels. 

 Like Australia, she secured her record crop in 1915. 



The greatest increase in actual volume was obtained by the United 

 States and Russia. The American crop exceeded 1,000 million bushels — 

 the record crop of any country and of any time. The increase was no 

 less than 284 million bushels greater than her pre-war average. Russia, 

 notwithstanding her active participation in the war, increased her pro- 

 duction by 186 million bushels compared with pre-war production — a 

 remarkable testimony of her wealth in human resources. As with 

 America, Canada, and Australia, the 1915 crop was a record one for 

 Russia. 



Other countries showing substantial increases were Great Britain, 

 Argentina, Egypt, Spain, and India. 



On the other hand, there has been a shrinkage in yield in Japan, 

 Bulgaria, Italy, Hungary, and France. The greatest shortage was ob- 

 served in France, the production for 1915 being 72 million bushels less 

 than the normal output in peace times. This was partly due to a falling 

 off in area, but chiefly to a lesser yield per acre — one of the inevitable 

 results of the mobilization of skilled farm workers of military age. 



It is difficult to secure reliable information regarding wheat produc- 

 tion in Germany and Austria. It is known that the harvest weather 

 was very unfavorable, and that the yield was considerably less than the 

 normal. In Hungary, the official estimate of production was 151 million 

 bushels, a falling off of 31 million bushels compared with the normal 

 yield. This represents a yield of 84 per cent, of the average. 



It is estimated that the total yield of Germany and Austria is cer- 

 tainly less than Hungary, and would probably not exceed 80 per cent, of 

 tlie normal yield, which would mean a deficiency compared with the 

 pre-war period of 29 million bushels for Germany and 14. \ million bushels 

 for Austria. 



Summing up, the total yield fur the world for 1915 /V 4,577 million 

 h'ushels an comixired with 3,816 vtillioiis for 1914, and 3,944 inillionx 

 for the pre-war period — an increase of 761 and 633 million bushels 

 respectively. The previoits world recorel harvest was ohtained in 1913, 

 wlien 4,272 million bushels were reaped. 



Tables III. and IV. sliow tlie probabU- douiaiid and supply of wheat 

 in the world for tlie year ending July, 1916. To find the probable 

 demand, or the quantity requiring to be imported by the importing 

 countries, we liave to find out (1) the normal consumption in these 

 countries, and (2) subtract from this their own production for 1915. 



