10 May, 1916.] The Wheat Crop for 1916. 273 



the neighbourhood of 140s. per ton (.3s. 9d. per bushel), and are difficult 

 to secure even at that price. 



Taking the freights as they are in the table, it will be seen that in 

 eighteen months they have risen from ten to fifteen times their normal 

 value. This remarkable rise is chiefly due to the heavy requisitioning 

 of the allied mercantile marine for the transport of men, foodstuffs, and 

 munitions for the allied Governments. 



SUMMARY. 



1. The Victorian wheat-growers, in response to the appeal for in- 

 creased sowings of wheat last year established two world records. 



2. The increase in area was 28^ per cent, greater than the previous 

 year — ^itself a record — and 63 per cent, greater than the average of five 

 years prior to the war. 



3. No other wheat-growing country of equal output gave such an 

 increase in acreage. 



4. The yield was 58i million bushels, compared with an average yield 

 of 23i million bushels for the 5 previous years — an increase of 150 per 

 cent. This increase, as compared with the normal output, also consti- 

 tutes a world's record. 



5. The present f.o.b. price is the best export price secured for 40 

 years, and if the whole harvest could be sold at current rates it would 

 represent in money value three normal crops. 



6. The prospects for a big acreage for 1916, however, are not bright, 

 as the area in preparation for wheat is apparently much less than normal 

 years. 



7. Scarcity of farm labour, and lack of substantial autumn rains in 

 the wheat areas are partly responsible for the probable reduction in 

 acreage. 



8. An important factor, however, is the general uncertainty among 

 farmers as to probable prices for wheat for next year. 



9. The foregoing paper attempts to show that, though the present 

 statistical position is favorable for wheat consumers, there is reason to 

 believe that by next harvest it will gradually turn in favour of the 

 producer. 



10. The world i-eaped its record croj3 — 4, .577 million bushels- -in 

 1915. 



11. The exporting countries have a surplus for export of 1,320 

 million bushels for the year endine July, 1916. 



12. Of this 310 million bushels are locked up in Russia and 

 Roumania, leaving 1,010 million Inishel.'; awaiting export in America, 

 Canada, Argentina, India, and Australia. 



13. The importing countries (excluding enemy countries) require 

 561 million bushels, hence there is a surplus above requirements of 449 

 million bushels. 



14. There are two factors in the present world outlook for wheal 

 that growers are advised to carefully watch — (a) diminution in acreage 

 in other countries, (h) reduction in average yield i>er acre as compared 

 with last year. 



15. The shrinkage in world acreage for the current year would nro- 

 b.-ibly exceed 15 million acros, involving a lessened production of 240 

 million bushels. 



