HOW LUMBERMEN HAVE SERVED THE PUBLIC 283 



can be started in line with the title of this paper by saying that I 

 consider the lumbermen of the country have rendered it a great service 

 by not being stampeded by the idea of a timber famine. Some of 

 them, perhaps, were; at any rate some used the idea for their own 

 ])urposes. But the wise, cool, trustworthy men, though they said 

 little, did not believe it. The bigness of the proposition appealed to 

 them — the difficulty of sizing it up statistically ; then they realized, 

 in fact felt in their own persons oftentimes, the vigor and resource 

 of a free people that I mentioned earlier as a factor in the whole 

 situation. 



And see how that confidence has been justified. The big factor of 

 the lumber market today, as Mr. Kellog has explained, is substitutes. 

 With the levels of lumber price reached ten years ago, an opening was 

 given them in many uses, and that movement has grown steadily in 

 volume. The bearing on the sufficiency of our timber resources is 

 evident. 



Nor can I omit touching the other aspect of the matter — the statis- 

 tics and predictions. Lumbermen kept silent about them for the most 

 part because, as interested parties, and in the minds of some under 

 indictment, they could say nothing to effect. But others did take occa- 

 sion at the time to make objection. Here is correspondence to show 

 that I disagreed not only with the predictions but with the figuring. 

 Dr. Fernow said he believed the figures untrue, and not only that, but 

 dangerous if used as an argument. Yet through all the years that have 

 elapsed since, that three-to-one proposition has been taken as a start- 

 ing point by nearly every man who has discussed broadly the forest 

 problems of the country. That this ground should be retraversed and 

 ideas circulated believed to be sound on the basis of present informa- 

 tion and judgment seems to be particularly desirable at the present time. 

 That in the circumstances would appear to be due to the lumber in- 

 dustry, while a further and particularly desirable result will be that 

 in the time that is ahead, more effective cooperation should be had 

 in the big common purposes from that body of men whose interests 

 are most affected, and who by training are most familiar with a por- 

 tion of the problem. 



For I am not saying that there is no place for forestr}^ in this 

 country ; I do not mean to imply either that we have more timber than 

 we shall find a use for; nor do I greatly blame the men who in the 

 critical times some years ago, to accomplish the big ends they were 



