TIMBER ESTIMATING IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS v321 



exactly the same, the per cent estimated may be increased without 

 increasing the cost in quite the same ratio. However, a more intensive 

 cruise naturally calls for more careful base line and location work, 

 and justifies more detailed computation, so in general the cost varies 

 almost, if not quite, directly with the per cent of estimate. 



FUTURE PROGRESS 



It is felt that the methods of estimating in the southern AjDpalach- 

 ians, while they may answer pjesent needs, are still far from perfect. 

 Undoubtedly new features of technique will be developed, and old 

 ones improved. It would seem that there is a good field for advance- 

 ment along the line of securing consistent accuracy. There is no use in 

 getting the width of the strip accurate to a degree not justified by the 

 character of the volume tables employed, or to carry the estimating 

 of individual trees to a degree of accuracy not justified by the methods 

 used to include in the strips a fair representation of the tract. Every 

 estimator knows that theoretically all steps of his work should be done 

 to approximately the same degree of accuracy, but how many can 

 express quantitatively their margins of error in any one particular? 

 A party chief in the Forest Service does not feel justified in using 

 the time necessary to check each part of the work accurately enough 

 to determine these, although valuable indications are obtained from the 

 check estimates. At the same time, there is no way to obtain positive 

 knowledge as to the standards of work which ought to be required 

 without making many careful tests. At present, the securing of con- 

 sistent accuracy is largely left to judgment, assisted very materially, 

 it is true, by the results of check estimates. However, this would 

 appear to be an important field for further research. 



Of course, judgment and experience will always be very large fac- 

 tors in estimating timber, especially in the southern Appalachians. No 

 development of technique can ever reduce the work to a merely 

 mechanical process. The variety of conditions is infinite, but even if 

 everything else could be made a matter of mehtod, the tally of the 

 individual tree is bound always to call for judgment on the part of 

 the estimator. But judgment and experience alone, without system, 

 are not sufficient for securing reliable estimates at moderate cost. Con- 

 tinued progress in systematic methods is called for by the increasing 

 value of timber in the southern Appalachians and consequent greater 

 demand for reliable estimates. 



