THE IMPOVERISHMENT OF THE SEA. 59 



For the last two years in this table my estimated averages are in 

 substantial agreement with the actual catches of the smacks. How is 

 it that my earlier averages are so much higher than those of the 

 Grimsby smacks ? 



In the first place it should be noticed that all my averages for the 

 above four years are in excess of the actual catches of the smacks. 

 This appears to indicate either that the total catch of bottom fish has 

 been exaggerated by the collectors of statistics, or that my estimates of 

 the catching power are inadequate. If the exaggeration of the catch, 

 or the under-estimation of the catching power, were uniform throughout 

 the period, this would not materially affect the value which my averages 

 possess in showing the rate at which the depletion of the North Sea 

 grounds has been proceeding. Consequently we may limit the inquiry 

 to the question whether there is any reason to regard the Beard of 

 Trade's statistics of fish landed, or my estimates of the catching power, 

 as of unequal value during the years in question. 



Concerning the first point, there is no doubt that in the earlier years 

 of the fishery statistics the catch of fish was unduly exaggerated. In 

 the Statistical Tables and Memorandum for 1S89 it is stated (p. 4) that 

 the great falling off in the Board's lieturns of Prime Pish landed was 

 largely nominal only, and arose from increased accuracy in the methods 

 of collecting the returns. The returns of Prime Fish for the first few years 

 in thousands of hundredweights, were as follows : 1886, 503 ; 1887, 

 235 ; 1888, 206 ; 1889, 118 ; 1890, 133. The fall during those early years 

 was certainly enormous, and the degree of error correspondingly large, 

 after all allowances for depletion of the grounds. But my calculations 

 do not include those years, and from 1889 onwards for a considerable 

 number of years the Board's returns for Prime Fish steadily increase, 

 which appears to imply, as has indeed been officially stated,* that at any 

 rate from 1889 onwards the greater experience of the collectors, and the 

 more accurate methods introduced, render the Board's returns sufficiently 

 reliable for comparative purposes. Consequently, so far as an opinion 

 can be formed from the internal evidence of the returns, and the official 

 statements of the Board, it is very improbable that the fall in my 

 estimated averages can be considered as exclusively, or even largely, due 

 to inaccuracies in the Fishery Statistics for 1889 and 1890, especially 

 as my averages again fall by equal amounts in the latter years of the 

 decade when the fishery statistics may be regarded as free from 

 extensive errors of the kind contained in the earlier years of their 

 publication. 



As regards the possible errors in my estimates of the total catching 



• Cf. Mr. Berrington, Minutes of Evidence, Select Committee, 1893, §§2,435, 3,083. 



