598 Forestry Quarterly 



son June 1, and burned over 1264 acres, while the year with the 

 next to least rain began a month later and had less fires and one 

 third the acreage. 



The amount of snowfall for the various years seems to have an 

 inverse effect on the acreage burned in June and July from what 

 would be expected. The records taken at Lake Eleanor (eleva- 

 tion 4700 feet) show that the largest burned over acreage follows 

 the most snowfall in the late winter and spring, and that years 

 with late snows begin their fire seasons just as early, and in one 

 case earlier than those without them. Particular stress has 

 been laid upon the value of lots of snow and late snows upon the 

 fire season, but this does not seem warranted by the records so far. 

 The three years which have had the greatest snowfall have had 

 the greatest acreage biurned over. 



There does not seem to be any correlation between any of the 

 known meteorological factors and a fire season, as far as can be 

 ascertained from our present available data. The factors which 

 one woiild naturally think to be of great influence apparently have 

 none at all, neither late rains or snows, nor precipitation or tem- 

 perature ; and each fire season is an individual which works out its 

 own destiny as it progresses. 



The one very important factor of wind cannot be correlated on 

 account of lack of data, and this may turn out to be the key to the 

 results of each season. Wind, however, cannot be predicted far 

 enough in advance to give a line on the coming season ; on the other 

 hand, there is no doubt that if wind is the deciding factor in each 

 season, we will very soon be in a much better position to deter- 

 mine the danger by means of the rapidly increasing effectiveness 

 of our cooperation with the weather bureau. This should be 

 extended until each Forest has at least one lookout station fully 

 equipped with aU necessary instruments, and with a wireless re- 

 ceiving outfit for getting danger signals from San Francisco. 



About the only thing that has been found out by this study 

 is that we cannot tell what the coming year fire season will be like 

 from our present data. There is a chance that a similar study for 

 a large area, such as northern or central California, will show a 

 correlation of meteorological factors from which the main char- 

 acteristics of a future season can be predicted. But in any case 

 it is probable that we must wait a few years for more detailed data 

 before any very definite conclusions can be drawn. 



