190 Forestry Quarterly. 



in the dangerous zone on account of the long dry seasons and the 

 many Hghtning storms without rain. Moreover the selection 

 system is necessary to protect the soil from its three worst enemies, 

 drouth, erosion, and brush. 



While it is true that the conservative lumberman would employ 

 a more conservative method of cutting than the lumberman men- 

 tioned above, in the case of cutting on "light-burned" lands, still 

 we would face another flat contradiction. Even if the man that 

 "light-burned" cut conservatively and left the proper proportion 

 of seed trees of each species, he would leave just so much idle 

 capital in the woods to insure reproduction which his light-burn- 

 ing would destroy. 



Every time an acre of reproduction is burned over there is a 

 financial loss which can be computed. On an average "light- 

 burn" all the reproduction under 15 years is killed and from one- 

 third to one-half of that between the ages of from 15 to 40 years. 

 Very often much more damage is done. For the sake of comput- 

 ing an average case and to obtain round numbers, it is assumed 

 that all the reproduction up to 25 years is killed. To get the value 

 of such a stand it will be necessary to find the value that this stand 

 would have at maturity, and discount it back to the age at which 

 it was killed. In other words it involves the expectation value of 

 the growing stock at the age of 25 years. Although there may be 

 considerable difference of opinion as to whether the cost or the 

 expectation value should be used, in this case it might be well to 

 figure the problem both ways. The writer is of the opinion that 

 damage to natural reproduction should be figured on the basis of 

 expectation value, while that to artificial should be figured at cost 

 value. The following case is therefore figured on the basis of 

 expectation value. The case takes the conditions as those existing 

 to-day on the private holdings of one of the largest timber holders 

 in the Pacific Coast States, who, as has been said before, "light- 

 burns" thousands of acres of timberland every fall. The final 

 Yr is based on growth in virgin stands of pure Yellow Pine. 

 Stumps have been counted, which show that under fair conditions 

 Yellow Pine will attain an average diameter breast high of 26" in 

 100 years. An acre usually contains about 20 such trees, with a 

 contents of about 1,200 board feet per tree. At the prevailing 

 stumpage rate of $2.50 per M., the final yield at the end of 100 



