Fnt-evasting Weatlier, 201* 



and wliii are. always invited to su[)ply notes of the weathel' wliicli enable us to 

 check the accuracy, frequently report that the forecasts were remarkably 

 accui'ate, l)ut tliey seldi>ni go as far as to say that they were actetl upon with 

 advantage. Occasionally 1 have learned that persons acting upon the forecasts 

 have saved themselves from difficulties which were otherwise unforeseen. 



■' In recent years the Office has endeavoured to meet the special require- 

 ments of farmers by supplying notices of the prospect of settled weather that 

 might be utilised for getting in hay or corn crops. Very enthusiastic ac- 

 knowledgment of the utility of these forecasts has been expressed in terms of 

 hundreds of pounds by an agricultural firm in Cornwall. 



" For the dwellers in cities life is so organised that the variations of weather 

 seem to be of little importance, and a forecast tends to be a matter of curiosity 

 verging on the important as the week draws to its end. The means of trans- 

 port on land and sea have been so greatly improved and developed as to give 

 the impression of being independent of the weather. This attitude, which is 

 justifiable with certain limitations, sometimes finds expression in various ways. 

 A post-offiee official once told me that a knowledge of to-m(irrow's weather 

 would be of no utility to the rural postal service, because His Majesty's mails 

 had to be carried whatever the weather might be. The dwellers in cities often 

 forget the conditions under which the supply of the daily necessaries of life, as 

 milk, meat, or vegetables, is carried on, and the extent to which the proper 

 ordering the supply is contingent upon the weather. Our feeling of inde- 

 pendence of the weather is sometimes sadly shocked by the paralysing influence 

 of a snowstorm or a fog, and we are forcibly reminded that it is not only the 

 health resort that is interested in to-morrow's weather. 



"It is in connection with agriculture and the supply of the necessaries of 

 life that the work of forecasting should find its application. For the excur- 

 sionist and the holiday-maker the uncertainty of to-morrow is really part of 

 the interest. So much is the holiday-maker disposed to look upon the brighter 

 side of things, that it is not at all improbable that, if we could describe to- 

 morrow's weather exactly, with all its dripping accuracy, some protests would 

 be raised against the publication of the information as interfering with business. 

 But with the agricultural world it is different. They are not by nature so 

 optimistic. It would be a matter of great interest to know the actual yield of 

 farm produce each year, estimated as a percentage of the maximum possible 

 under the most favourable circumstances of weather, and by how much a 

 promising result is spoiled by bad weather. The destruction of lambs by heavy 

 snowstorms, of fruit and potatoes by late frosts, the shortage of hay or roots 

 for want of water, and the loss of crops by inclement harvest weather, all put 

 together would total up to a large percentage and a vast sum of money. To 

 these must be added the loss or depreciation of live stock or perishable goods 

 in consequence of rough weather, or delays in transit, or the overstocking of 

 the market in bad keeping weather. With a life-long experience of a heavy 

 percentage of inevitable losses it is little wonder that the farmer should take 

 a phihisophic view of the situation. If he is to lose something like 40 per cent, 

 it seems hardly worth while to trouble about a margin of 1 or 2 per cent. But 

 the difference might easily reach a figure that would convert a loss on the year 

 into a profit, and whatever is gained by improving our knowledge of the weather 

 is 80 much to the good, even though it be not the whole, so that there is cer- 

 tainly a golden opportunity for successful forecasts of weather. 



"Since their introduction fifty years ago the use of synoptic charts has 

 enabled us to make certain definite advances, and the success which has been 

 achieved is sufficient to encourage us to pursue the researches further. It may 

 be that in the end the caprices of weather will after all disappoint us and to- 

 morrow's weather will never be forecasted with sufficient accuracy for all 

 practical purposes. Even in that case the effort will not have been valueless. 

 It is quite possible that the progress of research, guided primarily by the wi&h 

 to improve the daily forecast, will lead to the recognition of, or find material 



