128 English Timber and Underwood. 



underwood industries. It is important to consider what 

 possibility there is of this recurring, since it must necessarily 

 influence planting, especially as the price of our native supplies 

 is largely governed by that of the imported timber. It is, of 

 course, impossible to speak with any degree of certainty, when 

 so many factors affect the question. Fluctuations are inevitable 

 in every branch of commerce, but we can at least consider what 

 the factors are and what is likely to be the trend of future prices. 



It is here possible to deal with general principles only, and 

 to discuss the matter in its broader aspects. Sir William 

 Schlich and Professor Somerville have lectured on this subject, 

 so that people desiring figures should consult some of their 

 able reviews and articles. 



We are continually reminded that it takes more than one 

 generation to produce timber of good quality. This further 

 emphasises the importance of considering the future price. 

 Those who foresaw the present demand for rubber and for 

 Cricket-bat willow and planted these trees may well congratu- 

 late themselves on their foresight. These are exceptional cases, 

 but surely the same argument holds good. The long rotation 

 necessary to produce a crop of timber must be borne in mind 

 as illustrating how timber difi'ers from other produce, such as 

 wheat. In other crops an increased demand leads at once to the 

 production of increased supplies, which on a short cycle quickly 

 decreases price. Increased prices of timber will certainly open 

 up ncAV supplies, but the latter invariably accompanies other 

 development to which reference is made later. From the long 

 rotation necessary, timber as compared with wheat, &c., enjoys 

 far greater freedom from glutted markets as a result of a rise 

 in price. Therefore, if the extent of the existing supplies is 

 known, it is easier to see in which direction future prices are 

 likely to trend. 



Although we have not yet sufficient data for a reliable 

 estimate of the world's supplies of timber, we are to-day able 

 to obtain a rough guide to the supplies in most countries. 

 Scares of past years were dispelled by fresh supplies of foreign 

 timber appearing from little-known sources. 



If the general consumption of timber does not decrease, 

 whenever we get within sight of the limit of existing supplies 

 there is a point which sooner or later must have its effect, viz., 

 the general cost of production. 



Again, timber differs from wheat or similar crops since, as 

 concerns the bulk of imported timber, the price has not been 

 influenced by the cost of production. If the cost of production 

 has not been taken into account, and we have not unlimited 

 future supplies, then the low prices of the past are founded 

 on an artificial and unsound economic basis. 



