174 THE DEMOGRAPHY Of TASMANIA 



R.S. TAS. 



no very special features about the death-rate;, but the 

 birth-rate has several points of interest. 



BiriJi-rak a?id the Maternity Bonus. 



Last year there was a rise in the recorded rate in all 

 the Australian States, coincident with the coming into 

 effect of the Maternity Bonus on October 10, 1912. It 

 was at first thought that this was due to registration of 

 births being more promptly caiTied out. But the greater 

 part of the increase has jDersisted during the first six 

 months of 1913, and it is now clear that it corresponds to a 

 permanent increase in registered births per 1,000. It 

 may be simply that births arei registered which were for- 

 merly not registered. We have no means of checking the 

 registration of births. The difference between successive 

 census enumerations of course equals natural increase plus 

 net immigration. It is always assumed that the figures for 

 natural increase are correct, and that the large errors 

 which occur are due to defective record of migration. But 

 it may very well be that the birth figures are in defect, 

 and that this deficiency is now being corrected to a large 

 extent by the effect of the Maternity Bonus. The alter- 

 native is that there is a real increase of the birth-rate — after 

 a long period in which it has been first decreasing and then 

 almost stationary— due partly to general prosperity and 

 partly to the large increase in immigration durng the last 

 two years. 



Fertility. 



In place of the crude birth-rate the census makes avail- 

 able the figures for fertility, that is, the number of births 

 per 1,000 women aged 15 — 45. 



The comparison with crude birth-rate is of interest : — 



Birth-rate. Fertility. 



Australia 1880 ... 35.2 ... 170 



1890 ... 35.0 ... 159 



1900 ... 27.3 ... 117 



1912 ... 28.6 ... 126 



Tas3iiania 1912 ... 30.5 ... 134 



It will be noticed that the position of Tasmania 

 relative to the whole of Australia is practically unaltered 

 by taking fertility in place of birth-rate. 



There is another test which may be taken. Birth- 

 rate is as much an economic as a physiological phenome- 

 non, and the readiness of the man to undertake the burden 



