56 THE PROBLEM OF MALTHUS STATED. 



D. — The actual surplus (a) ; statiouariuess {h) ; 

 decline (c) per year. 



1. When I + S — M exceeds T + C, the result will he 



P a or D fl, or an increase of population. 



2. When I + S — M, only equals T + C, the result will 



be P fc or D 6, or a stationary state of population. 



3. When I + S — M falls below T + C, the result will 



be P c or D c. or a decline in jiopulation, caiised by 

 the checks being greater than the birth rate. 



What folly, therefore, to conceive a stationary state of 

 population as being due to the lowered absolute influence of 

 I alone, when the same i-esult, according to our experience, 

 based upon the vital statistics of all countries, is due rather 

 to the increased value of C, the root evil, which Malthus 

 wished to see eliminated. 



That a high death rate has a greater influence than a low 



b irth rate in diminishing the suri)lus of births over deaths is 



easily proved by reference to vital statistics — our only guide 



in such matters. For example, take the case of Norway and 



Spain and Hungary for the year 1885. 



No better example from actual facts could be obtained to 

 show that the increase of disease and misery, as shown by 

 the death rate C + T has more influence in loTvering the 

 value of B o, or surplus of births over deaths, than the 

 lowering of the rate of births ; for Norway'.s actual rate of 

 increase is higher than that of Spain and Hungary respec- 

 tively by 7'8 and 11 per 1,000 persons; although its birth 

 rate is actually lower than in these countries by .'j-7 and 14'4 

 per 1,000 respectively. In a healthy, happy, prosperoiis, and 

 peaceful country, the actual rate of increase is invariably 

 high, duo to a high liirth rate and a low death rate. 



In an unhealth}, miserable and savage society, the 

 tendency, while these conditions last, is invariably shown iu 

 a higher death than birth rate, resulting in a positive decline 

 in jiopulation. 



It is clear, tlierefore, that when population is declining it 

 is rather because misery, disease, and vice have abnormally 



