74 OBSERVATIONS ON THE HARE SYSTEM 



could be no inclusion of this first to form a subsequent redis- 

 tributed detail element of chance in the determination of its 

 only one quota-excess (Hartnoll 16) of the second order. The 

 total influence of all orders of quota-excess transfer votes in 

 Launceston was, therefore, for each candidate not excluded 

 actually 1 (minimum) to 9 (maximum) votes = 16 in all. 

 That is, the influence proportionate to the total effective votes 

 of all kinds was min. 0*04 per cent. ; max. 0*38 per cent. ; 

 total, 0*68 per cent. 



The feebleness of this influence in altering the final deter- 

 mination of the all-powerful influences, viz., the first count 

 and the votes (two or higher preference) of the previously 

 excluded candidates, is seen by the results. For, although the 

 lowest candidate (Sutton, 283) before distribution was only 

 nine votes behind the next lowest in order (Fowler, 292), yet 

 the inclusion of quota-excess distribution of the second order, 

 although differing in force only by six votes, to the advantage 

 of the lowest, the same order of importance was undisturbed, 

 Fowler still keeping the lead by three votes ! This inevitable 

 result is beyond any shade of dispute, as, in the distribution of 

 the quota-surplus 16, there entered no element of chance 

 selection. Such an element could only enter where there was 

 a possibility of a portion of this 16 being afterwards redistri- 

 buted. In Launceston such a possibility could not occur. It 

 is proved, therefore, that in the Launceston election the possible 

 influence of the element of chance was positively nil. 



In Hobart the final results, although affected by four quota- 

 excesses (one of the first order and three of the second), were, 

 even in the aggregate, too feeble to exercise any disturbing 

 influence upon the true relative positions which, as in Laun- 

 ceston, w r ere altogether dominated and determined by votes of 

 first counts and by next in order preferences of lowest excluded 

 candidates. 



The total force of the transfer votes of quota-excesses of the 

 first and second order in Hobart only amounted to 3*54 per 

 cent, of all effective votes, as shown by the following analysis : — 



pr Per cent. 



Analysis. Trans- totot( ! 1 



f effective 



J ' votes. 



Quota-excess Votes r First Order (1) Fvsh 44 1*25 



Ditto \ Second „ (3) Bradley, 



I 81 2-29 



I Mulcahy 



VBoth (4) ... 125 3-54 



All other effective votes 3411 96-46 



Total effective votes 3536 100-00 



