OF ELECTION IN TASMANIA. 75 



PCY C€llt 



Difference between lowest candidate elected and to total.' 



the highest of the candidates excluded 129 3*39 



Highest number of votes originally transferred to 

 any one candidate of the quota-excess of the 

 first order (Fysh 44) which in case of re- 

 transfer still involves an infinitesimal element of 

 chance 27 0*76 



Actual number of votes re-transferred by quota- 

 surpluses of second order and by transferred 

 votes of lowest excluded candidates in which 

 any element of chance selection was involved... 39 1 ' 10 



Average number of such votes for each candi- 

 date 3-25 009 



The above analysis is interesting and instructive. It shows 

 that among the 3536 total effective direct and next in order of 

 preference votes, only 125, or 3*54 per cent., were derived from 

 all quota-excesses ; that of these only 39 were redistributed in 

 which any element of chance entered under the method pro- 

 vided by Mr. Clark, Clause 115, Sect. VI., for the deter- 

 mination of the proportion by which the 39 papers were actually 

 distributed ; and that this, in the aggregate, only represents 

 1 -10 per cent, of all effective votes, or a mean of 325 votes per 

 candidate. As the total redistributed quota-excess votes of the 

 first order (39) only represent 3*25 per cent, of the final 

 difference between the lowest candidate elected and the next in 

 order— the highest candidate who was last excluded from the 

 poll — it is clearly demonstrated that the remaining element of 

 chance selection in practice is infinitesimal in its influence, and 

 did not in the slightest degree affect the relative order of can- 

 didates as mainly determined by the combined influence of 

 (No. 1 preference) votes of the first count, and Nos. 2 and 3 

 preferences of transfer votes of the lowest excluded candidates. 

 These latter together (3411) represent, as already shown, 9(r46 

 of the total effective voting force ; and this fact alone should 

 show that too much importance, by far, has been commonly 

 attached to all rival modes for dealing with the distribution of 

 quota-surpluses and their possible but small element of chance. 

 The reduction of the original small element of chance from 

 1*25 per cent, of all effective to O09 for each candidate should 

 surely satisfy anyone that the ideal elimination of elements of 

 chance, so far as the true order of final results are concerned, 

 have been practically and successfully achieved by the Clark- 

 Hare method introduced at the last general election in Hobart 

 and Launceston. 



If still, however, it is desired to entirely eliminate the 

 remaining infinitesimal element of chance in the redistribution 

 of any portion of quota-surpluses, the law may, with a very 



