A projection of per capita consumption of shrimp 20 years 

 hence is less easy to obtain. Extrapolation of the trend over the past 

 decades fails to provide a realistic auiswer. If per capita consumption 

 were to double during the next two decades, as it did during the last 

 two decades, a total of 830 to 920 million pounds (heads-on) of shrimp 

 would be required to satisfy the requirements of the domestic market. 11/ 

 This quantity would correspond to the bulk of the world catch at the 

 present time. Since supply is controlled by nature, discovery of 

 extensive new grounds, as well as greatly intensified exploitation of 

 presently known resources, would have to take place before the required 

 qusmtity would be available in the domestic market. Exploitation of 

 grounds ciwrently fished by the domestic fleet is at a rate which cannot 

 be increased without at least some long-term damage to the species. 

 Exploration of waters within easy access to the typical shrimp boat 

 will reach a stage of diminishing returns before long. Since the pros- 

 pects of a sizable expansion of domestic production do not appesLr very 

 bright, imports would have to be increased tremendously to meet the 

 domestic supply deficit at a level of cons\anption of 83O to 920 million 

 pounds . 



TABLE VIII -28. --SHRIMP SUPPLY REQUIREMENTS IN 1975 

 (Heads-on basis) 



1/ The Census population estimates are based on differing 

 assumptions with respect to future birth, mortality, and 

 net immigration rates. 



11/ This estimate was made by staff members of the Bureau of Coramercial 

 Fisheries in 1956. It uses 1955 as the base year. The estimate is 

 arrived at by extending the 1975 population estimates by four pounds which 

 is double the current per capita consumption rate. The edible weight 

 equivalents of the above figures can be obtained by dividing by 2, 



111 



