As the productivity of his boat irarestment decreases, the 

 fisherman is tempted to intensify his fishing effort. Coupled with 

 the accelerated rate of additions to the fleet this tendency may create 

 serious difficulties for him. 



Given a limited supply, an increase in fishing intensity and 

 size of fleet may lead to a lessening of production per unit of effort, 

 or "overfishing", at least locally. The fisherman who finds it necessary 

 to share with a larger number of colleagues the limited supply on the 

 grounds he customarily fishes, is sorely tempted to increase his catch 

 by transgressing conservation laws and regulations. This is especially 

 true in the inshore fishery where it is usually impossible for the 

 fisherman to follow supply and switch his operations to other geograpiiic 

 areas , 



The economic consequences of an unchecked rise in price are 

 much more auickly felt by the industry. Consumers will stop buying when 

 prices have exceeded the point they think a commodity should sell for. 

 If the onset of consumer resistance happens to coincide in time with a 

 period of general decline in economic activity, the threat to the fisher- 

 man's economic position will be accentuated. It can be demonstrated that 

 the summer of 1953, when shrimp prices started to break, v/as such a time. 

 Figure IX - 3h contains graphs of shrimp wholesale prices and selected 

 business indicator series which show traces of the 19^3-19^h recession. 



Any influence of cyclical factors on shrimp prices, insofar 

 as such factors may have influenced the market situation in 1953-195U, 

 is obscured by the fact that, while wholesale prices of certain food- 

 stuffs did take a dip simultaneously with shrimp prices, both the whole- 

 sale price index for all commodities as well as for all processed foods 

 maintained their level during the period of decline. There is reason 

 to believe that the demand for shrimp, as long as it is still considered 

 a relative luxury item, would be more severely affected by a dip in per 

 capita disposable income than the demand for items generally regarded 

 as staples. 



The determination of the degree, if any, to which the demand 

 for shrimp is influenced by cyclical fluctuations will have to await the 

 gathering of additional evidence in fut\ire years. Because of the con- 

 flicting nature of the series depicted in figures IX - 3h and IX - 3? 

 as well as other series not shown it is impossible to decide whether 

 the parallel decline in shrimp prices and certain business indicators 

 is another example of a spurious relationship rather than proof of a 

 genuine relationship between the movements observed. 



While causal factors are harder to determine, effects are 

 much more easily described. Briefly, the precipitous drop in prices 

 put the emphasis on costs in the fisherman's operations. 



1U7 



