Table 34. --Estimated number of yearling male seals, year 

 classes 1961, 1962, 1964, and 1965, from tag 

 recoveries at age 2, and the kill of 3-year-old 

 male seals, St. Paul Island 



Table 35. --Forecast of the kill of male seals in 1969, by age, 

 Pribilof Islands, Alaska 



attempt to estimate survival indirectly, but the 

 forecast based on the yearling estimate re- 

 flects a direct estimate. 



Combined Estimates of the Kill of 3-Year- 

 Old Male Seals on St. Paul Island 



The estimates and their standard errors are; 



Method JLstimate s tandard error 



Thousands 



9.5 



Weighted average 23.6 



11.4 

 6.1 



4.7 



ESTIMATES OF THE TOTAL KILL OF MALE 

 SEALS IN 1969 



Table 35 shows the forecast of the total 

 kill of males for the Pribilof Islands. The 

 estimated kill at ages 2 and 5 is the average 



Total 



- Number - 



St. Paul 3, 300 



St. George 900 



Total 4. 200 



23. 600 18. 300 45. 200 



5,900 4,600 11,400 



29, 500 



22, 900 56, 600 



of recent years. The extrapolation to St. 

 George Island is based on the assumption 

 that the population of seals there is about 20 

 percent of the total. Table 36 compares the 

 forecast for 1968 with the actual number 

 killed in that year. x 



Table 36 Forecasted and actual kill of male seals, Pribilof 



Islands, Alaska, 1968 



The forecast error for 1968 was greater 

 than that for 1966 and 1967. The error was 

 about 1,000 for St. Paul Island and about 2,000 

 for St. George Island if allowance is made for 

 advancing the termination date to 2 August. We 

 hope the forecast error can be kept to this 

 order of magnitude, though many variables in 

 differential survival and in estimated errors 

 are still poorly understood. 



SPECIAL STUDIES 



This section includes studies of fur seal 

 biology that are carried on in addition to 

 continuing studies described in the main body 

 of this report. 



ACTIVITY OF YOUNG MALE SEALS ON 

 LAND 



Studies of the activity of young males while 

 they are on hauling grounds will provide in- 

 formation useful for harvesting the population. 

 In 1968, son-ie young males were tagged and 

 radio transmitters were attached to others for 

 studies of behavior. 



Tagging 



Between 24 June and 18 July, 334 young 

 males in ages 2 to 5 were double tagged 

 St. Paul Island (table 37). Among 226 tagged 

 males taken in the commercial kill 

 by 13 August, 2, 55, 42, and 1 percent were 

 in ages 2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively. Four 

 were killed on St. George Island, and 222 were 

 taken on St. Paul Island. One seal tagged on 

 24 June was killed on Southeastern Rookery, 

 Medny Island, U.S.S.H., in 1968, but the exact 

 date of recovery is not known. Presumably, 

 some of the survivors will be killed on the 

 Pribilof Islands in 1969 and 1970. 



27 



