APPENDIX TABLE 5. — Estimates of the pup population, returns 



estimated from these estimates, and actual returns of 

 3-year-old male seals, St. Paul Island, year classes 1952-58 



EVALUATION OF THE FORECAST FOR 1961 



The forecast for 1961 predicted a kill of 

 33,200 3-year-old males by 31 July, or 44,200 

 by 15 August. Interpolation yields 36,000 as 

 the forecast of the kill to 5 August, the actual 



termination date. Appendix table 6 compares 

 the forecast with the actual kill on St. Paul 

 Island. 



Methods of forecasting the return of 3-year- 

 old males are not yet adequate. 



APPENDIX TABLE 6. —Predicted and actual kill of male seals by 5 August, 



St. Paul Island, 1962 



60 



