It is evident from an examination of the master table (table 3) that one 

 explosion or a whole series of explosions did not prevent fish from entering 

 the area subsequently. For example, on October 21, 1948, there were 

 three 2400 pound explosions, and each explosion killed fish. When explosions 

 were conducted on two consecutive days (April 15 and 16, 1948 and August 

 5 and 6, 1953), fish were killed on both days . Then, too, marketable fish 

 were killed in every month of the year except February. 



PREDICTION OF FUTURE EFFECTS OF NAVAL ORDNANCE EXPLOSIVE TESTS 



If -further explosions of the type described in this report are continued 

 in the Patuxent Biver area C-11 - C-13, the following predictions can be 

 made with reasonable confidence, based on the facts and reasoning outlined 

 above: (1) Explosions during the spring will, on the average, produce more 

 kills, and probably higher kills, of marketable fish than explosions during 

 any of the other seasons; (2) the average kill of marketable fish, on a yearly 

 basis, assuming that all seasons are represented, will be relatively small; 

 (3) extremely large kills will be of exceptional occurrence, but may occur 

 at any season; (4) in a considerable percentage of the explosions no marketable 

 fish will be killed; (5) the size of the charge, from 240 to 2540 pounds, will 

 have no appreciable effect, in itself, on the amount of marketable fish killed; 



(6) fish will continue to recur in the area where the explosions take place; 



(7) in practically all instances the lethal range of the explosions will not 

 exceed one hundred or two hundred yards radius from the shot -point; (8) 

 no changes in the fishery may be expected other than those of a biological 

 nature which might occur in an area in which no explosive tests were conducted. 



It is quite impossible to set specific figures on future expected kill in 

 the area C-11 - C-13, for tiiis would be dependent largely upon the biological 

 characteristics of abundance and habits of fish. If there should be no major 

 change in the biological, characteristics, then the order of magnitude of the 

 measurements recorded during the seven-year period covered by this report 

 could be extended to the future as the best available estimate. 



19 



