1952-1960. This expectation assumes that consumption will continue at the same 

 per capita level as in 1952, which was 1^ pounds per person. As compared to the 

 10 percent expension in consumption which can be expected solely on the basis of 

 increased population, the estimated increase shown in figure 11, is much larger, 

 amounting to 36 percent. Factors other than the increase of population are ex- 

 pected to have a bearing on the I960 volume of consumption. 



It is believed that the price relationship of canned tuna to canned sal- 

 mon will be a very important influencing factor with respect to the I960 estimate. 

 The salmon runs are not expected to decline to the extent they have in the past 

 decade, and are more likely to increase. However, the supply of canned salmon 

 is not expected to exceed 6 million standard cases in any one year in this decade 

 under favorable conditions and will average somewhat less. This compares with 

 an average pack of 6,968,280 standard cases from 1931 to 1941. Also, high labor 

 and material costs are unlikely to decline, and these rigid costs together with 

 a limited supply will keep canned salmon prices fixsm dropping very far. Even 

 if the canned salmon industry launches a promotion campaign it is unlikely that 

 it can regain all of the market that has been lost to canned tuna. 



In addition to being influenced by the competitive situation with canned 

 salmon the estimate graphed also assumes that national income will continue 

 along present trends with employment at high levels. Greater promotional ex- 

 penditures by the tuna industry and additional favorable circumstances can 

 increase consumption to an even higher estimate. On the other hand unfavorable 

 economic conditions such as decreased national income and unemployment would 

 probably result in lower consumption. 



OUTLOOK FOR THE CONSUMPTION OF CANNED 



TUNA AND OTHER TUNA PRODUCTS - IN 19^3 - BEYOND 1953 



Canned Tuna 



Canned tuna has become a staple article of diet for certain purposes 

 in certain areas, at least. As a base for salads, canned tuna of the usual 

 oil pack and more recently in the brine pack, has been commonly and increa- 

 ingly used for some time, over most of the country. The major increases 

 doubtless occurred at times when canned salmon became scarce. Possibly the 

 complete absence of canned crab meat from Japan during World War II was also 

 a factor in this increase. The other staple use is in sandwiches, which may 

 themselves be made of tuna salad or of a tuna "spread". Many sandwiches are 

 sold at lunch counters ajid other establishments serving light meals, 



98 



