is based primarily on the volume of canned tuna now available from the 1952 

 pack, nornal results of fishing by the domestic fleet, and the continuance 

 of imports of frozen tuna and canned tuna and bonito at a substantial level. 

 It is presumed that determined and intelligeit efforts vdll be made to step>- 

 up the distribution of tuna. If the new pack from domestically-caught tuna 

 is substantially lower in volume than in 1952^ the total available domestic 

 supplies for the entire year 1953 will not be sufficient to provide the vol- 

 ume that could be absorbed by an expanding market. 



Whatever nay happen to domestic production of raw stock, we assume 

 that supplies from other parts of the worlds either canned abroad or canned 

 in the United States from raw or other stock produced abroad, will increase 

 the total supply to an amount ample for the needs of the domestic market. 

 That is, we assume that the total quantity made available will meet any 

 reasonable forecast of demand in the next few years and that the price will 

 be low enough so that it will be absorbed by the market. In other vords, 

 although no more tuna can be consumed than that vAiich is supplied, the in- 

 terest and capacity of the consumer probably will be the limiting factor /than 

 the domestic production supplemaited by supplies from abroad. 



Foods Competing With Canned Tuna 



The supplies of competing foods, particiilarly protein foods, are 

 important factors affecting the consumption of canned tuna. Among these 

 protein foods are meats, poultry, cheese, eggs, and types of canned fish 

 other than tuna. Of these it may be said that the per capita volume of 

 meat available for consumption is unlikely to greatly exceed that of 1952. 

 Cattle numbers are extraordinarily high, but pork production in 1953 is 

 likelj'' to be at a lower level than in the previous year. The production 

 of poultry meat as a specialized industry has been growing rapidly and it 

 seems probable that production in this field will continue at a high level. 

 Production of eggs per capita reached a high point in 1952 and is not likely 

 to greatly exceed recent levels. The per capita production of dairy pro- 

 ducts, on the contrary, has been declining and seems likely to decrease for 

 the next few years at least. 



As to canned fish, the production of canned salmon, the major competitor 

 of canned tuna, does not seem likelj^ to increase greatly for the next few 

 years. The sardine industry is so variable in its production that little 

 that is significant can be said about the prospects. Maine sardine production 

 should average below that of 1952 in the next few years. It is po.>_ible 

 that the development of anchovies as sardines may increase the supply from 



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