54 U. S. BUREAU OF FISHERIES 
To arrive at a more definite knowledge of the distribution of 
spawning requires simultaneous operation of several research boats, 
so that stations could be more closely spaced and visited a number of 
times during the spring and summer. The importance of such 
simultaneous surveys cannot be overestimated, for this is the most 
direct means possibly the only one, of determining whether the 
spawning stock is being maintained at a sufficiently high level to pro- 
vide adequate replacement for a large and intensive fishery. The 
possibility of a concerted oceanogr aphic program would be greatly 
enhanced were a Bureau research boat available to participate with 
other agencies that maintain research boats in this region. 
CONDITION OF THE RESOURCE 
It is apparent from the foregoing that present information con- 
cerning the pilchard is imper fect, and that nothing final can be said 
relative to the exact status of its stock. Never theless, a number of 
observations already made indicate strongly that the present large 
commercial fishery is producing its effect. Prior to the season of 
1937-88, fishermen in California always were able to supply as much 
fish as processors could accept, and often more. During this period 
the total catch rose at a logarithmic rate (1.e., at an equal percentage 
per annum), increasing 14 percent per annum, or, roughly, doubling 
every 5 years. In 1937-38, however, for the first time, the supply 
failed to meet the demand, in spite of a rise in, price from $10 to $13 
per ton. This situation could mean that during the preceding years 
the size of the stock had declined; it could signify that the availabil- 
ity of the fish changed abruptly that season; or it could indicate that 
the demand had outgrown the ability of the fishermen to supply 
pilchards at a price economically in line with other competitive raw 
materials. It could also mean, and probably does mean, that a com- 
bination of these three causes was effective. In any case, it is likely 
that further expansions of the industry might not be economically 
sound, regardless of whether or not there was an actual decline of 
pilchar ds in the sea. 
A further apparent effort of exploitation in California, first 
observed during the season of 1937-38, is the occurrence in the catch 
of an unusually large proportion of small fish, or, conversely, a low 
proportion of large fish. This might, and probably does, signify 
that recent years had produced unustially successful year classes, 1G: 
the large fish, however, were fully as abundant as formerly, then the 
addition of these quantities of small fish should have increased the 
abundance markedly, and the catch per boat should have risen by the 
season of 1938-39 substantially more than the observed 15 percent. 
Available information suggests that the population of older fish had 
been reduced more than had been offset by the accessions of young 
fish in 1938-389, although the current season of 1939-40 promises to 
constitute a more marked recovery. 
In Oregon and Washington, it 1s difficult to appraise the condition 
of the pilchard resource ; fir st, because the industry there is so young; 
and second, because of the suspicion that a varying proportion of the 
population ‘of old adults migrate annually to the north to be caught 
in the fishery. It is fairly certain, however, that the abundance of 
