324 U.S. BUREAU OF TISHERIES 



Because of the recent influx of the 1929 year class into the commer- 

 cial catch the prospects for the eastern banks fishery in the next 2 

 years are better than for the fishery on Georges. In the spring and 

 summer of 1934 the upgrowth of young haddock of the 1929 class 

 should cause a very considerable increase in the average catch per 

 day of scrod haddock. The late fall fishery should show an in- 

 crease over 1933 in the catch of large haddock but a decrease in 

 scrod. The level of abundance for the entire year should be con- 

 siderably higher than in 1933, depending on how well this stock of 

 fish can survive the present intensive fishery. By 1935 these banks 

 should begin to show a decline similar to that on Georges in 1933. 



SuTTvmary for all hcmks. — The difference in growth rate on 

 Georges Bank and the eastern areas acts as a very efficient means of 

 spreading over a period of 2 to 3 years the maximum effect of an 

 abundant year class instead of concentrating it in one fishing sea- 

 son. Except for this phenomenon the effects of good and poor year 

 classes would be much more drastic than has been the case. Under 

 these conditions, with a fleet that can operate either on Georges or 

 on the eastern banks, the fishery as a whole can maintain a fairly 

 even level if a good spawning season, such as that in 1929, occurs 

 every 3 years. If good spawning seasons occur at intervals of less 

 than 3 years, the level of the fishery should rise, while if the intervals 

 are more than 3 years, the level should fall. 



A summary may now be given of the past and expected future 

 course of the fishery as affected by the spawning seasons 1929-32 of 

 which the 1929 season was very successful, the 1930 season a failure, 

 the 1931 season poor, and the 1932 season appears to have been a fail- 

 ure. Resulting from the haddock spawned in these years there was 

 a distinct improvement in the fishery in 1932 (1929 class on Georges) 

 and maintenance of the catch in 1933 (1929 class on eastern banks). 

 In 1934 the fishery as a whole may be expected to maintain a level 

 near that of 1933, possibly somewhat better (1929 class on eastern 

 banks and 1931 class on Georges) while in 1935 there should be a 

 distinct decline in the catch per trawler day (3 spawning years either 

 failure or poor, 1930-32). Developments in 1936 will depend on 

 whether the 1933 spawning season was a success, fair, or a failure. 



A long-range view of the haddock fishery (1916-35) suggests that 

 in the last 10 years there has been a decided decline in the level of 

 abundance of the haddock population. The catch per trawler day 

 during the past 4 years (1930-33) has been but about 52 percent as 

 much as the average for 1916-30 in spite of improvements in the nets 

 and other gear. Taken by 5-year periods the averages per trawler 

 day were 1916-20, 14,600; 1921-25, 13,400; 1926-30, 14,800; 1931-33, 

 8,100. Even assuming a 25 percent improvement in the catch for 

 1934 and a level in 1935 equal to 1933, the average for 1931-35 will 

 be little more than half as much as for the previous 15 years. 



Present haddock program. — To maintain our present qualitative 

 analysis of the condition of the fishery and its expected future trend, 

 we must continue the catch record and length-frequency analysis 

 which has been under way since 1931. In addition, more data on 

 small haddock will have to be obtained at sea from trawler trips. 

 However, if estimates of future abundance are to be more precise and 

 if measures for counteracting the declining trend of the fishery are to 



