CENTRAL, AND WESTERN ALASKA INVESTIGATION. 151 



where the fingerlings live for one or two or three years, and in the 

 sea. The number of spawning fish whicli would be adequate in fav- 

 orable years, it must be recognized, would fail utterly to produce a 

 run when the eggs, the fingerlings, and the growing fish in the sea 

 had been exposed to unusually severe conditions and to more formi- 

 dable attacks from their innumerable enemies. This is not unsup- 

 ported theory. It is a necessary deduction from all the observations 

 and all the experiences of those who have studied the sequence of 

 the seasons in the fisheries. 



A safety factor on the spawning beds is for this reason essential. 

 Unfavorable seasons come without warning. They may be scattered, 

 with wide intervals between, or two or more may come in quick suc- 

 cession. Unless there is spared each year for spawning purposes a 

 number materially greater than are ordinarily sufRcient, unfavorable 

 seasons will declare themselves as failures which otherwise would 

 have been saved by what in ordinary seasons constitutes an excess 

 production of young. Such excess production must be maintained 

 m order to be safe. 



When increase of gear fails to produce material increase of pack 

 there is danger that the safety factor has been abolished, if indeed 

 no worse has been done. On the Kvichak-Naknek the 1917 yield 

 of nearly 16,000,000 fish does not demonstrate that 15,000,000 could 

 safely be taken in 1912. Other river basins have been watched dur- 

 ing the progress of depiction. The sequence of events is always the 

 same. Decreased production is accomplished by increase of gear. 

 Fluctuations in the seasons become more pronounced. Good sea- 

 sons still appear in which nearly maximum packs are made. But 

 the poor seasons become more numerous When poor seasons ap- 

 pear no attempt is made to compensate by fishing Jess closely. On 

 the contrary, efforts are redoubled to put up the full pack. The poorer 

 years strike constantly lower levels, until it is apparent to all that 

 serious depletion has occurred. 



It can not be affirmed with certainty that the extremely poor 

 season of 1919 has been due to a combination of overdose gleaning 

 and of unfavorable general conditions, but it is believed that such 

 has been the case. The year in any event might have been one of 

 less than average yield, but the extent of the disaster would have 

 been mitigated if a generous safety factor had been hitherto pro- 

 vided. The result of the year can not be foretold. The escape to 

 the spawning beds must have been far below the average of recent 

 years. It may have fallen below the minimum which is necessary 

 to keep up the run even in favorable years. If so, the results will 

 be serious in 1923 and 1924— bad even if the general conditions mean- 

 while prove propitious, far worse should they again prove unfavor- 

 able. Bad years more; certainly reproduce themselves when spawning 

 has been dangerously reduced. 



The dangers of the situation with the present scale of operations 

 continued have been pointed out, but on the Kvichak-N'aknek there 

 is danger of further increase. The region is recognijced as the last 

 great stronghold of the red salmon, the greatest producer in the 

 world. Other canneries continue to appear; all are likely to increase 

 their scale of operations; more gill nets will constantly be employed 

 The prospects are unfavorable unless restrictions are imposed while 

 yet tnere is time. 



