[ganong] origins of SETTLEMENTS IN NEW BRUNSWICK 9 S 



in European immigration, which did not manifest itself, however, until 

 about 1861, and by the beginiiing of an extensive native emigration or 

 " exodus," which commenced somewliat later. The new settlements of 

 the period are not numerous. They are located approximately on tho 

 accompanying map (No. 12), and were determined. as described below. 

 The final distribution of the population is illustrated upon map No. 13. 



A. Historical Factors. 



a. The chech in New Brunsiuiclc's growth through extrinsic causes. 

 An important feature of this period is the check in the growth of popu- 

 lation, especially in later years. This is clearly brought out by the 

 accompanying tables and curves (polygons). The five southern counties 

 (shown in the lower part of figure 14), ^ whose boundaries remain 

 substantially as at the foundation of the province, show clearly this 

 check after 1861, and a loss of population, connected with the native 

 exodus, after 1881. The conditions in the other counties are less easy 

 to trace, owing to their subdivision at different times into new counties, 

 but this being allowed for, two facts are evident, first, the check in 

 their population is less marked, and, upon the whole, is later in appearing 

 than in the southern counties, and, second, in those with a large French 

 element there is no check at all, but a steady increase. The province 

 owes it entirely to the French that it has not fallen off in population 

 in recent years. The tables and curves show that the five southern 

 counties had their most active growth in the preceding period (prior 

 to 1851), while the northern and eastern counties have had their most 

 active growth since then. The curve for the entire province shows 

 clearly the beginning of the check in 1861, and its culmination after 

 1881.^ 



^ In this figure each vertical space represents 3,000 of population, except in 

 the curve for the province, where each represents 2,500. The marginal letters are 

 initials of the counties and province. The forking of the upper curves shows 

 the formation of new counties at the respective dates. Certain lines are dotted 

 simply to avoid confusion with lines they cross. 



"No statistical study of the New Brunswick population and its movements 

 has yet been made, though the subject is most inviting, and essential to a correct 

 understanding of the province's history. The first census of the province was 

 taken in 1824, and later censuses in the years shown by the accompanying tables. 

 For the years prior to 1824 we have only certain approximations. Thus Wed- 

 derburn, in his "Observations" (page 54), and elsewhere, estimates the popula- 

 tion as 12,000 in 1782 (11.457 in 1783, on page 74), and as 27.000 in 1803. 

 The latter figure is, no doubt, based on data collected in that year by Edward 

 Winslow for Governor Carleton, as recorded in the Win.'ilow Papers. The esti- 

 mate for 1783 is, no doubt, based on the returns of disbanded troops and Loyal- 

 ists for that year or the next (Canadian Archives, 1884, xli. ; these Transactions, 

 v., 1889, ii. 151 ) , but the estimate would appear too small, as there must have 



