Fishes of the JVestern North Atlantic 289 



shown no positive or permanent decline. Of course it has been claimed from time to 

 time that signs of exhaustion were evident, but such claims seem to have been based 

 on the scarcity or disappearance of the fish in certain areas, not on the population as a 

 whole. There certainly is insufficient information concerning the American stocks to 

 furnish a basis for an answer. If a decline has taken place in American waters, it could 

 scarcely be ascribed to overfishing, as the supply of fish generally has exceeded the de- 

 mand. The fluctuations in the annual catches, then, do not necessarily mean that the 

 fish were scarce when a small quantity was caught, or were abundant when a large catch 

 was taken. Neither does a small annual catch necessarily indicate that the demand was 

 light. It may mean only that the fishermen were operating in an area where the fish 

 are usually abundant but were absent there that year. The fish are influenced in their 

 migrations by the weather and by the presence of food, which seem to account for their 

 abundance in one area one year and elsewhere the next. At present it is impossible 

 to predict the time of arrival of schools in any given area. 



From his studies of Atlantic Herring from the English Channel, Ford wrote, 

 "if it could be shown that the variation from season to season followed some rule, it 

 might yet be possible to discover that rule from the study of past data and hence to predict 

 what is likely to occur in the future" (j6: 369). But all uniformity seems to be lacking. 

 "It can be regarded as certain that fishing results are dependent upon the weather, 

 but in the present state of meteorological science, we cannot hope to receive much 

 advanced information regarding weather conditions during a forthcoming season." 

 Nevertheless, he found that daily forecasts had some value, for a gale warning not only 

 indicated an interruption of operations, but it also suggested heavy catches when fishing 

 was resumed. The prediction of calm weather, on the other hand, suggested lighter 

 catches. 



The many age analyses of Atlantic Herring, chiefly of those from European waters, 

 have shown that a very large crop of young may survive in some years while very 

 few do in other years, especially in more northerly spawning regions. Consequently, 

 those spawned in a favorable year may dominate the population for several years to 

 come. The classic example is the year-class produced in 1904 that dominated the 

 Norwegian catches for the next six years and dominated catches on the west coast of 

 Newfoundland until 19 14 and even 1915. In the Gulf of St. Lawrence, of late years, 

 the broods of 1939, 1941, 1943, and 1944 were highly productive, whereas those of 

 1940, 1942, and 1945 contributed but little to the population (5'j: 107). There is 

 also the well-documented case of a particular body of Bay of Fundy fish that did 

 not receive any significant recruitment for some 10 years, by which time the few re- 

 maining fish seem to have dropped out of the picture due to old age (75 : 93, 99). Con- 

 sequently, the successes or failures of reproduction in given years are reflected in the 

 catches. Thus Ford (j6: 370) was able to predict which year-classes would predominate 

 in the catches of certain years, as well as the probable proportion of large fish, for as 

 a rule old fish are larger than the younger ones, though the fish in some areas grow 

 faster than those in others. Ford concluded his discussion on predictions as follows: 



19 



