23 



f. Information on the acceptability of various management 

 plans might not tell the eight Regional Councils how to manage 

 the various fisheries in the respective areas, but it would 

 give them valuable information on what to avoid (i.e. the kinds 

 of managerial options which would raise a great deal of politi- 

 cal opposition) . 



Ill . Innovation and Factors Affecting Impact 



The concern with "impact" can hardly be ignored. Fisher- 

 men, processors, dealers. Governors, Congressmen and other 

 politicians at all levels are going to v/ant to know what the 

 effect of PI 94-265 is going to be. And the Fisheries Councils 

 charged with managing the marine fisheries under PI 94-265 will 

 need similar information if they are going to make sensible 

 alterations in fisheries regulations as conditions change in the 

 future. 



Two factors make it especially difficult to measure the 

 so-called "impact" of a resource management bill. First, when 

 we are talking about assessing the "impact" of extended juris- 

 diction, we are talking about predicting events in the future. 

 The role of seer is always difficult. Second, the term impact 

 refers to all the ramifying effects throughout the social system 

 of a major change in fishing practices. These effects are apt 

 to be far more extensive than anyone realizes. Extended juris- 

 diction will undoubtedly affect everything from fishing techno- 

 logy, crew size, catches, income levels, employment levels. 



