Transactions of The Royal Society of Canada 



SECTION II 

 Series III MARCH 1916 Vol. IX 



Fundamental Processes in Historical Science. 



(Part II: The Incorrect Processes). 

 With an Introduction on the Present Position of Historical Method. 



By Hervey M. Bowman, Ph.D. (Lipsiensis). 



Presented by W. D. LeSueur, LL.D. 

 (Read by Title, May 26, 1915). 



Copyright, Canada, 1916, by Hervey M. Bowman. 



(All rights, including translation, reserved). 



References. 



Part I of this paper (the Correct Processes) appeared in the 

 Transactions of The Royal Society of Canada, 1912, vol. vi, pp. 133- 

 164, and will be referred to in this part simply as "Part I." 



The references to Bernheim's Lehrbuch der historischen. Méthode, 

 which first appeared in 1889, are to the edition of 1908. 



CONTENTS. 



Page 



Introduction: The Present Position of Historical Method 490 



I. The Methodic Principles of Science 502 



II. Experimental and Theoretical Test of Probability as a Criterion of Con- 

 clusions in Historical Science: 



What is probability ? 506 



Probability as a criterion of historical conclusions, except where they 

 represent averaged results, is condemned by impartial defini- 

 tions 507 



Probability tested experimentally (Cases 1-12) 508 



Summary of the experimental test : 



c. Verification of the general principle that probability even 

 of the superior measure does not produce individually 

 correct results 537 



b. General features of the erratic nature of probability 538 



c. Special features of the erratic nature of probability 538 



d. The balancing of probabilities 540 



Probability tested theoretically: 



o. By the fundamental principles of science 542 



b. By the methodic principles of science 543 



