490 THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF CANADA 



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III. The Function of Reasoned, Pure, and Formal Probability in Science, and 



the Rights of Probable Conclusions to Publicity: 



(a) Reasoned probability (the inferior measure) 545 



Reasoned probability in primary conclusions from records 547 

 Reasoned probability in indirect inferences from primary 



conclusions 548 



(b) Pure probability (the superior measure) 551 



(c) Formal probability (the product of correct processes) .... 552 

 Summary of precedence and proper use of the three forms 



of probability and the required average of essential 

 correctness in history 556 



(d) Rights of probable conclusions to publicity 559 



IV. The Origin and Results of the Prevailing Use of Reasoned Probability 



as a Positive Historical Criterion: 



(a) Origin 561 



(6) Results 568 



Conclusion : 



(a) The cardinal features in a scientific treatment of records . . 573 

 (6) The erroneous attitude of the present method toward records 



as such 578 



INTRODUCTION. 



The Present Position of Historical Method. 



In Part I of this paper an effort was made to locate a scientific 

 basis for necessity in historical conclusions; and the author there 

 expressed the hope to examine, in Part II, the scientific basis, the 

 origin, and the results of the prevailing use of probability as an his- 

 torical criterion. This examination, like the argument for necessity 

 in Part I, is made by an experimental and a theoretical test; and in 

 the theoretical, the examination is not confined to history alone; 

 but an appeal is taken, with special reference to history, to the common 

 basis of science in general. 



This appeal is not only proper in itself; but the author, in taking 

 it, follows the lead of champions of the prevailing historical method. 

 These champions, when reproached with the uncertainty that char- 

 acterizes history under their method, answer, like Bernheim (Lehr- 

 buch, p. 200), with nonchalance, "Name a science which has not, 

 beside assured knowledge, many results that are only probable and 

 hypothetical." 



Probability has indeed an important function in all science. 

 In order to determine this function, an accurate definition of the 

 term is indispensable. There are divers forms of probability, be- 

 sides the ordinary. The author has sought to define these forms 



