[bowman] fundamental PROCESSES IN HISTORICAL SCIENCE 511 



(Evidence, Part 3): "The lady herself had not noticed the 

 clouds. As she stepped from the veranda, she recalled that she had 

 not taken a paper which was necessary for her errand and which she 

 had laid out especially for the purpose. When she returned for the 

 paper, her father who was standing at the window drew her attention 

 to the clouds, and at his suggestion she took the umbrella." 



b. Narrative Form of Case I. 



The successive portions of available trustworthy evidence are 

 printed in ordinary type, introduced respectively by the bracketed 

 expressions, Parts 1, 2, 3. The successive probable conclusions are 

 printed in smaller type between the parts of available evidence. These 

 conclusions are introduced respectively by the bracketed expres- 

 sions, Nos. 1,2; and at the end of each is indicated, likewise in brackets, 

 the degree of probability. 



(Part 1) : "On a summer day, a lady, clad for the street, emerged 



from her home. Opposite her in the sky, otherwise bright and 



clear, were clouds of very threatening aspect. As she stepped from 



the veranda, she raised her head in the direction of the clouds with a 



motion of surprise, and stopping short she turned and re-entered 



the house." 



(No. 1): "Probably the lady, abandoning an errand abroad, returned to 

 the house for shelter from the threatened rain." (2 /3 or 2 :1). 



(Part 2) : "Presently she reappeared carrying an umbrella, and 



continued on her way." 



(No. 2): "Her purpose in returning to the house was not, as it seemed, 

 to take refuge from the impending rain; but very probably, because she noticed 

 the clouds, she returned for the umbrella." (20/21 or 20:1). 



(Part 3) : "The lady herself had not noticed the clouds. As she 

 stepped from the veranda, she recalled that she had not taken a paper 

 which was necessary for her errand and which she had laid out especially 

 for the purpose. When she returned for the paper, her father, who 

 was standing at the window, drew her attention to the clouds, and at 

 his suggestion she took the umbrella." 



According to the 1st and 2nd applicative principles of historical 

 science (See Part I of this paper, 152, 155), where evidence is trust- 

 worthy, i.e., where it exemplifies the five requisites for trustworthi- 

 ness, one is required to accept the statements contained in such evidence 

 as correct save in those points, if any, in which one can adduce neces- 

 sary grounds for rejection. The present test is made on the basis 

 that all the successive parts of available evidence are trustworthy, 

 therefore a narrative confined to any part or parts of this evidence 

 and necessary inferences therefrom will constitute a narrative of 



