512 THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF CANADA 



necessary conclusions in the above sense. Where probable conclusions 

 such as Nos. 1 and 2 in this case are admitted, the narrative may be 

 regarded on the contrary as one based on probability; hence the 

 present experimental test of probability as a criterion of historical 

 conclusions may serve also as a test of the respective merits of neces- 

 sity and probability in narration. In a narrative of necessary con- 

 clusions incidental error may occur, but subsequent additions of 

 trustworthy evidence ought not to alter essentially the account for- 

 mulated on the lesser amount or amounts of previous evidence. Thus 

 in the present case it will be noticed that in the narration confined to 

 necessary conclusions, consisting of Parts, 1, 2, 3 of the evidence read 

 uninterruptedly without regard to the intervening probable con- 

 clusions, each addition to the narrative forms a perfect juncture with 

 the part preceding. At no point is there a correction of a previous 

 conclusion; and at the first and last as well as at the intervening stage, 

 the account is concise and accurate in every particular. On the 

 contrary in the narrative opened to probable conclusions, each addi- 

 tion to the evidence necessitates a weeding out of previous statements, 

 probable and yet erroneous; and the narration, so far from being 

 concise and accurate, is burdened from the beginning with succes- 

 sive errors and corrections. This inaccuracy remains until the last 

 addition of evidence disposes finally of the probable conclusions and 

 forces the narrative back to the basis of necessary conclusions. 



Case 2. 

 Narration. 



(Part 1). "In the early part of the last century there lived in a 

 city of France an old man named Jean Poisson. His dwelling was a 

 single attic chamber in the poorest quarter, his fare was of the scantiest 

 and worst, and his garb so mean that the arabs of the street were 

 accustomed to follow him and to jeer at his rags and tatters." 



(No. 1): "In all probability he was a pauper." (100/101 or 100:1). 

 (Part 2): "After his death, securities were found in his posses- 

 sion which showed that he was a millionaire." 



(No. 2): "Instead of being a pauper, therefore, he was shown to be most 

 probably a wretched miser." (25/26 or 25:1). 



(Part 3): "All his wealth was bequeathed for the purpose of 

 bringing from a neighbouring source an ample supply of good water 

 for the poorer parts of his native city. In his youth he was impressed 

 with the sickness and suffering prevailing there on account of scanty 

 and bad water; and resolving to remedy the evil, he lived throughout 

 a long life singly for that purpose, denying himself all but the barest 

 necessities of existence." 



