[bowman] fundamental PROCESSES IN HISTORICAL SCIENCE 515 



and in view of the absolutely, but not proportionately, greater number 

 of able men who come from rural districts, it is a common opinion 

 that the brains of the nation come mainly from the farm. 



Case 4. 



This case illustrates the feature that an addition of evidence 

 may be of insufficient interest to find a place in a narrative of neces- 

 sary conclusions, and especially that scientific results should be stated 

 as a rule in positive, and not in negative, form because persons receiving 

 information wish as a rule to know what a thing is, not what it is not. 

 On this ground Part 2 of the evidence would ordinarily be excluded 

 from a narrative of necessary conclusions, and for this reason it is 

 bracketed. 



Narration of Case 4. 



(Part 1): "John Smith held insurance of $500." 



(No. 1): "The insurance was probably against fire." (20 -3/33 -3 or 

 20-3 : 13). 



(Part 2): ("The insurance was not against fire.") 



(No. 2): "In that case it is likely that the insurance was on his life." 

 (17/26 or 17:9). 



(Part 3): "The insurance was on goods in transit." 



(No. 3): "The insurance on the goods being $500, very probably that 

 was what they cost him." (10/11 or 10:1). 



(Part 4): "The goods cost him $300." 



-No. 4): "In that case he probably insured them for $500 because he 

 could not duplicate the goods under that amount." (10/11 or 10:1). 



(Part 5): "The goods were insured at $200 above cost because 

 they were antiques that could not be duplicated and he had a pur- 

 chaser for them at $500." 



In this case the narrative of necessary conclusions would not 

 adopt verbatim the parts of evidence used, as in Cases 1, 2 and 3. 

 The narrative here would read as follows, the upright lines being 

 inserted to indicate the respective extensions made in view of Parts 3, 

 4, 5 of the evidence: 



"John Smith held insurance of $500 | on goods in transit | costing 

 $300 I because they were antiques that could not be duplicated and 

 he had a purchaser for them at $500." 



The probability of the 1st and 2nd conclusions is based on the 

 volume of insurance in Canada. According to the Canada Year 

 Book, 1911, Second Series, (Ottawa, King's Printer, 1912), pp. 296, 

 302, 324, the net amount in force in all companies in 1910 was, for 

 fire $2,034,276,740, for life $856,113,059, and for risks of all other 



