[rowman] fundamental PROCESSES IN HISTORICAL SCIENCE 521 



Case 8. 



Narration. 



(Part 1) : "Mrs. Jones has two grown daughters, Mary, the elder, 



and Anna the younger, with different surnames." 



(No. 1): "The difference in surnames is due probably to the elder being 

 married." (1 + /2+ or 1 + :1). 



(Part 2): "The elder daughter is single." 



(No. 2): "Then it is most probable that the younger acquired another 

 name through marriage." (60/69 or 60:9). 



(Part 3) : "The younger daughter is also single." 



(No. 3): "In that case the most probable explanation is that Mrs. Jones 

 was twice married and had a daughter by the first husband." (5/6 or 5:1). 



(Part 4) : "Mr. Jones is the father of both daughters." 



(No. 4) : "It appears, therefore, that one of the daughters acquired another 

 surname by legal adoption into another family." (10/11 or 10:1). 



(Part 5) : "Mary, being of age at the time and in an independent 

 calling away from home, kept the old surname which was changed in 

 Anna's case when her father took the name of Jones in place of Brown 

 in order to qualify as heir under his uncle's will." 



In this case the narrative of necessary conclusions, formed by 

 successive insertions and extensions, will read thus: 



"Mrs. Jones has two daughters, Mary, the elder, and Anna, 

 the younger, both single, and children of Mr. Jones, yet with different 

 surnames. Mary, being of age at the time and in an independent 

 calling-away from home, kept theold surname, which was changed in 

 Anna's case when her father took the name of Jones in place of Brown, 

 in order to qualify as heir under his uncle's will." 



The 1st probable conclusion depends approximately on the 

 chances that the elder daughter is married rather than the younger. 

 Nothing is known except that both daughters are grown and there- 

 fore of marriageable age. Their respective attractions, the period of 

 life and the difference in their ages are not specified; hence there is 

 an indefinite superiority of probability, represented by the expression 

 1 + :1, in favor of this conclusion, that the difference of surname was 

 due to marriage by the elder. Were the difference in age slight, e.g., 

 only a year, this superiority would amount only to a balance of prob- 

 ability; but under other circumstances the superiority might be 

 marked. Thus, according to comprehensive statistics of the German 

 empire summarized in Brockhaus's Konversationslexikon, 14th éd., 

 vol. ii (Leipsic, 1894), p. 928, out of every 10,000 women at the age 

 of 30, the number of married, widowed and divorced (forming the 

 total who had ever married) was 6,359, but out of every 10,000 women 



