[bowman] fundamental PROCESSES IN HISTORICAL SCIENCE 525 



and 12s. 6d. for a copy of this recent edition, bound in velvet calf. 

 The recent edition sells ordinarily in velvet calf at the retail price of 

 10s. 6d. Brown first bought a copy in buckram at 5s. Subsequently, 

 preferring the other binding, he obtained an allowance of 3s. for his 

 cloth copy in exchange for one in leather, which made the total cost 

 of the book to him 2s. more than the usual price." 



John Gait (1779-1839), the founder of the Canada Company and 

 of the city of Guelph, and whose name is borne by the city of Gait 

 in Ontario, was a Scottish novelist, not of the first rank, and yet of 

 merit in depicting provincial life in Scotland a century ago. In Part 1 

 of the evidence, nothing is specified about the date of Gait's writings, 

 hence the probability of the 1st conclusion is fixed by the chances in 

 general that a person would buy but one copy of a book (other than 

 the Bible, of which book many persons have several copies, and some 

 have many), and that he would buy a new and less' expensive issue 

 rather than one that was older or more costly. This is the ordinary 

 practice of book buyers, therefore 10/11 or 10:1 is estimated as the 

 probability. In the 2nd conclusion the early date of the second edition 

 is not in evidence, and therefore the probability of 10/11 or 10:1 is 

 fixed, as in the 1st conclusion, by the general chances that a buyer 

 would take but one copy rather than several, and a new book rather 

 than an old one. In the 3rd conclusion the early date of the second 

 edition is in evidence, and the estimated probability of 10/11 or 10:1 

 depends on the general chances that a buyer will take but one copy 

 and not several copies of the same book. The probable inference on 

 this basis is that Brown expended the 22s. 6d. on his one copy of an 

 old edition, old editions being frequently more expensive, on account 

 of their scarcity, than modern editions. In the 4th conclusion the 

 estimated probability is increased to 20/21 or 20:1, because it is here 

 in evidence that Brown is interested in old books, especially the works 

 of Gait. The first edition of an old book, being particularly prized 

 by such bibliomaniacs, commands usually much the highest price; 

 and according to the habits of these persons, even though Brown al- 

 ready had a copy of the Annals dated in 1822 which cost him but 4s., 

 he would very probably pay more than four and a half times that price 

 for a homelier copy, simply because it was dated in 1821 and there 

 was none earlier. In the 5th conclusion the probability of 10/11 or 

 10:1 represents the chances in general that buyers of recent publications 

 pay the ordinary retail price, and not less nor more either by buying 

 at second hand or for other reasons. Recent publications are sold 

 ordinarily at first hand and at the regular retail price. 



